Name: Coronavirus really is that bad and you should work from home | ZDNet
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Coronavirus really is that bad and you should work from home | ZDNet

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Byfor| March 6, 2020 -- 19:57 GMT (11:57 PST)| Topic:You can't get the news anywhere now without hearing about how left and right and companies, like Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and many others are telling employees in the Seattle area to work from home. Is the coronavirus really that bad? Do all the shut-downs and community quarantines, when we don't use these for flu outbreaks, really make sense? Is this all hype and panic? The answers are: Yes, it really is that bad. Yes, staying away from large group gatherings makes sense. And, no, this isn't hype and panic.From cancelled conferences to disrupted supply chains, not a corner of the global economy is immune to the spread of COVID-19.First things first. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports . The flu? 0.1 percent. That's a huge difference. But, even if Trump is right and the mortality rate is 1%, that still makes it ten-times more deadly than a garden variety flu.  There's only been one other modern pandemic disease with a similar death rate. The 1918 . So, as far as we know, COVID-19 is worse than the 20th century's most deadly disease, which killed 50 to 100-million people.  Now, there are differences, of course. Today, we have antibiotics to deal with secondary infections, such as bacterial pneumonia. WHO experts also think COVID-19 is less infectious than the flu. Still, the bottom line is this is a killer virus and much more dangerous than the typical flu.So, does staying and working from home make sense? Looking back again to the Spanish Flu, the answer is yes. A 2007 study found with the 1918 flu that cities which enforced school closures, public gathering cancellations, and isolation and quarantine saw significantly better mortality rates.In particular, ; lower peak mortality rates; and lower total mortality. There was a statistically significant association between increased duration of nonpharmaceutical interventions and a reduced total mortality burden." These cities' restrictions had a median duration of 4 weeks, with a range of 1 to 10 weeks.  Why did it help then and how would it help now? The study's authors suggest, "Such measures could potentially provide valuable time for production and distribution of pandemic-strain vaccine and antiviral medication. Optimally, appropriate implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions would decrease the burden on health care services and critical infrastructure." Theoretical model studies of a possible pandemic, such as found: Border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2–3 weeks unless more than 99 percent effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40 percent, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact. Putting it all together, businesses aren't overreacting. This really is a serious health problem. Staying home from school, work, or large social gatherings, if you can, is a smart move.  This won't be easy. But the possible alternatives are worse.Byfor| March 6, 2020 -- 19:57 GMT (11:57 PST)| Topic:

Byfor| March 6, 2020 -- 19:57 GMT (11:57 PST)| Topic:You can't get the news anywhere now without hearing about how left and right and companies, like Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and many others are telling employees in the Seattle area to work from home. Is the coronavirus really that bad? Do all the shut-downs and community quarantines, when we don't use these for flu outbreaks, really make sense? Is this all hype and panic? The answers are: Yes, it really is that bad. Yes, staying away from large group gatherings makes sense. And, no, this isn't hype and panic.From cancelled...

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Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, aka sjvn, has been writing about technology and the business of technology since CP/M-80 was the cutting edge, PC operating system; 300bps was a fast Internet connection; WordStar was the state of the art word processor; and we liked it.His work has been published in everything from highly technical publications (IEEE Computer, ACM NetWorker, Byte) to business publications (eWEEK, InformationWeek, ZDNet) to popular technology (Computer Shopper, PC Magazine, PC World) to the mainstream press (Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, BusinessWeek).

https://www.zdnet.com/meet-the-team/us/steven-j-vaughan-nichols/

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

ZDNet is a business technology news website published by CBS Interactive, along with TechRepublic. The brand was founded on April 1, 1991, as a general interest technology portal from Ziff Davis and evolved into an enterprise IT-focused online publication owned by CNET Networks.

Coronavirus really is that bad and you should work from home | ZDNet

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