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SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.“We think that the economy’s going to need low interest rates, which support economic activity, for an extended period of time … It will be measured in years.” This was a quote from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell given during an interview with NPR. We first discussed the Fed’s shift to a flexible average inflation targeting regime a few weeks ago before it was made official. This week we, again, offer a review of recent statements by Fed officials about the new regime. The topic is, admittedly, academic and while the regime change was largely telegraphed it is still a watershed moment in central banking. Global investment portfolios have likely not yet made the adjustments required to adapt to the new landscape. First US Fed Funds Rate Hike Not Priced in for 4 - 5 YearsSource: CitiIf you would like to receive this macro summary directly to your mailbox every Sunday please subscribe. It’s free.Atlanta Fed GDPNow is currently tracking at 29.6% for Q3, up from 28.9% last week.New York Fed GDP Nowcast is currently at 15.6%, up from 15.3% last week.Goldman Sachs: Reopening at a GlanceSource: JP MorganSource: CitiUS reported its 4th consecutive month of strong labor market gains. August payrolls rose 1.37mln vs. 1.35mln expected, boosted by 238k census hires.Source: Cornerstone MacroSource: CitiADP private-sector employment +428k in August, short of consensus estimate for 950k.Change in Total Non-farm Private Employment by Company SizeSource: ADPUS Weekly Jobless Claims fell 130K to 881K in the week ended August 28th.US trade deficit +18.9% in July to $63.6bln from $53.5 in June and well above consensus forecast of $58bln.Source: Well FargoThe US Manufacturing PMI registered at 56% for August, up 1.8% from July indicating expansion in the overall economy for the fourth month in a row after a contraction in April. April’s contraction ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. IHS Markit US Services PMI registered 55.0 in August, up notably from 50.0 in July.Source: IHS MarkitUS new vehicle sales in August: 15.2mln (seasonally adjusted annual rate) vs 14.5mln in July.Source: JP MorganThe ISM Price Index at 59.5%, up 6.3% from July, indicating raw materials prices increased for the third consecutive month. An increase in input prices was realized across the board for all 17 industries surveyed in the index. China’s manufacturing PMI at 51% for August, from 51.1% in July.Dallas Fed manufacturing index rises to 8.0 in August vs -3.0 for July. First expansionary reading since February.Source: CitiThe Indian economy contracted by 23.9% in the second quarter representing the worst among the world’s top economies.The Trump administration announced Tuesday that the CDC will halt COVID-19 related evictions through the end of the year. The order is set to start this Friday and last through December 31, 2020.Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Rich Clarida, gave a speech entitled, “The Federal Reserve’s New Monetary Policy Framework: A Robust Evolution”. His views and discussion are important because Clarida has been the lead and architect for the Fed’s new framework. We have discussed this new framework in each of the past two weeks. Please refer to those past summaries for additional background.Federal Reserve Governor, Lael Brainard, “Bringing the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy into Alignment with Longer-Run Changes in the Economy.”Philip Lane, the ECB’s Chief Economist, made a comment on Tuesday (9/1) that “the Euro-Dollar rate does matter” to the central bank and to the economy. His comment was a catalyst that caused the EUR to give back some of its recent strength as it moved 1.5% lower from the week’s high print of 1.2011 before he made the comment. The day after Lane’s comments, the Financial Times published an article discussing the Euro’s strength in which the paper anonymously quoted several members of the ECB’s governing council.Trade Weighted EUR IndexSource: ECBSource: FTThe Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened 40 times to keep its currency’s peg against the US dollar in check in 2020, official data show — the most active spate of interventions since the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. In total, it has sold HK$132bn to keep the exchange rate steady.Source: FT Taiwan has removed a hurdle to a bilateral trade deal with the US, pledging to ease restrictions on American pork and beef imports.US crude oil exports reached 3.24mln barrels per day in July (vs. 2.75mln BPD in June) - US Census.Citigroup asks, what could derail the tech runaway train? Berkshire Hathaway bought a 5% stake in each of Japan’s five biggest trading houses. The combined value of the holdings is over $6bln.MGM Resorts will be laying off 18,000 furloughed employees.United Airlines will furlough 16,370 workers when federal aid expires October 1. WSJ: “Individual-Investor Boom Reshapes US Stock Market.”Source: WSJHilton Worldwide said that system-wide occupancy for their hotels was 45% in early August versus 13% low in April. Occupancy in China for the hotel chain was last reported at ~60%.Tesla Inc. announces share offering to fund growth and expand with new factories in Germany and Austin, TX.Zoom Video Communications, Inc. shares zoom to new highs following second quarter earnings for FY21.DocuSign, Inc. beats on earning as the work from home trend continues into the second quarter of 2020.Macy’s, Inc. reported better than expected earnings for second quarter of 2020.US exchanges last week saw the purchase of 22mln more call contracts than puts, a record disparity.Source: FTThe median S&P 500 stock is down 12% from its high and almost ⅓ of S&P 500 components are still trading 25% or more below their 52-week highs.Source: Morgan StanleySource: BloombergByteDance, owner of TikTok announced they will need China’s approval for the sale in the US.As the story of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s resignation unfolds, potential successors are probed.Turkish, Libyan central banks signed a cooperation deal on Monday. The banks will carry out activities to foster bilateral economic relations and strengthen financial cooperation between the two countries.Source: Leuthold GroupThank you for subscribing to the Primary Dealer Review. If you have any feedback on the content or format, or have any questions, please email me directly at  and I will get back to you.Do you know someone who would like to receive this publication? Please feel free to share the Weekly Macro Summary with them.This weekly summary expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice. The author has no duty or obligation to update the information contained herein. Further, the author makes no representation, and it should not be assumed, that past investment performance is an indication of future results.Moreover, wherever there is the potential for profit there is also the possibility of loss.This weekly summary is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose. The information contained herein does not constitute and should not be construed as an offering of advisory services or an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Certain information contained herein concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources.The author believes that the sources from which such information has been obtained are reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based.This weekly summary, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of the author.© 2020 Primary Dealer. See , andThis site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please or unblock scripts

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.“We think that the economy’s going to need low interest rates, which support economic activity, for an extended period of time … It will be measured in years.” This was a quote from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell given during an interview with NPR. We first discussed the Fed’s shift to a flexible average inflation targeting regime a few weeks ago before it was made official. This week we, again, offer a review of...

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