Michael B. Cerny
Michael B. Cerny
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The 2022 Beijing Olympics Games: A Sure Win for Athletes? | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

The 2022 Beijing Olympics Games: A Sure Win for Athletes? | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games was perhaps the most unusual in decades owing to a fraught political atmosphere—the pandemic, press restrictions, human rights violation in Xinjiang, crackdowns in Hong Kong, and the threat of war at the Ukrainian border (which has now come to pass) all hovered in the background. It took place under intense political scrutiny and came to a muted end. After 16 days and 109 events, Norway harvested the largest number of medals, followed by Germany, China, the United States, and Sweden. The games, which were often criticized for being tone-deaf to China’s...

Mar 3
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3 Reasons to Ignore that Twitter (or Weibo) Poll | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

3 Reasons to Ignore that Twitter (or Weibo) Poll | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

A Guide for China WatchersMichael B. Cerny is the associate editor of the . Scott Singer is the co-founder and director of the . Both are graduate students in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford.  Problem #1: Polls on social media are biased by their sampling frames.Problem #2: We cannot make claims about margin of error. Problem #3: Social media surveys are havens for response bias.The big picture: polls on social media, such as Twitter and Weibo, present an inaccurate and unreliable picture of what the general...

Aug 10
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Competing to Win: the Biden Administration's Policy on China | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Competing to Win: the Biden Administration's Policy on China | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Watkins is a prolific author and public commentator on the U.S.-China relationship, and has been for nearly 4 decades since his interest was sparked by a 4th grade teacher. Some of his other publications can be found .Your guide to understanding wargames, and how to interpret the recent findings of wargames over Taiwan by CSIS and CNAS.The following translation is of a commentary by Annie Lee, a student in the Department of Diplomacy, National Chengchi University.An event hosted by the US-China Education Trust, the Carter Center, and the US Heartland China Association.

Sep 21
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Wang Hao: Political Polarization as Seen in the U.S. Midterm Election | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Wang Hao: Political Polarization as Seen in the U.S. Midterm Election | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

An archived version of the original Chinese-language commentary can be read . This translation is by Vera X., an intern with the Carter Center’s China Focus.On September 2, Beijing time, US President Joe Biden delivered a speech titled “The soul of the nation” in Philadelphia. Biden’s speech, which comes at a sensitive time in the run-up to the 2022 midterm elections, reflected the intensifying battle between the Democrat and Republican parties. The Biden administration began with a discussion of political polarization as a result of the controversy surrounding the legitimacy of the 2020...

Sep 16
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Jia Qingguo: A China-US Cold War Draws Near

Jia Qingguo: A China-US Cold War Draws Near

This translation is the transcript of a speech given by Professor on July 9, 2022. Since Speaker Pelosi’’s visit to Taiwan on August 2, 2022, the U.S.-China relationship has deteriorated further. Some of the more recent, positive interactions between Washington and Beijing mentioned by Professor Jia have evaporated in the wake of China’s retaliation against the Speaker Pelosi’s visit.The Chinese-language version of this speech can be found . An archived version can be found .Under the influence of the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and other factors,...

Sep 7
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Guo Liangping: Crises and Choices in China's Foreign Relations

Guo Liangping: Crises and Choices in China's Foreign Relations

Guo Liangping is a senior research fellow at the Institute of East Asian Studies of the National University of Singapore. The article was originally published in Chinese by Lianhe Zaobao. A republished version of the Chinese-language article can be found .The world today is rapidly shifting from an economic world to a political one. The two worlds operate in differing logics: In the economic world, competition is about who wins more, whereas in the political world, competition is about who loses more. The world is thereby shifting from a win-win situation to a zero-sum one. Due to the...

Sep 15
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The Future of China From the Perspective of Taiwan's Political Development | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

The Future of China From the Perspective of Taiwan's Political Development | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

The following translation is of a commentary by Yu-Lin (Annie) Lee, a student in the Department of Diplomacy at National Chengchi University.The original Chinese-language version of this commentary can be found .On August 2, 2022, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China issued an official statement welcoming the visit of U.S. Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi.  Pelosi visited Taiwan with a delegation of influential congressional leaders. The delegation included a number of U.S. committee leaders and staffers. The purpose of the visit was to...

Sep 22
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Public Opinion and China’s Space Ambitions | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Public Opinion and China’s Space Ambitions | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Lincoln Hines is an Assistant Professor for the West Space Seminar at the US Air War College. He received his doctorate in Government from Cornell University in 2021. He was previously a Guggenheim predoctoral fellow at the National Air and Space Museum, a visiting researcher at Peking University’s School of International Studies, and a Nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow at the Pacific Forum.The views expressed in this article represent the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of the Department of Defense, the Department of the Air Force or The Air University.How does...

Mar 25
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Understanding the Putin-Xi Pivot in Ukraine | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Understanding the Putin-Xi Pivot in Ukraine | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Dr. Alexander Görlach is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs in New York.The war Russia wages against Ukraine has now entered its fifth week. The “Blitzkrieg”-victory Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin dreamt of clearly did not come true. To the contrary, Russia, met with fierce resistance by the Ukrainian population, has been unable to defeat the Ukrainian military. The staggering support the free world is handing to the besieged nation goes hand in hand with decisive condemnation of Vladimir Putin’s actions. Western sanctions have hit the fortune of the...

Apr 1
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Was the Ugandan Airport Loan a Debt Trap? | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Was the Ugandan Airport Loan a Debt Trap? | U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Osebhahiemen B. Okooboh is a graduate student at Kennesaw State University, where she majors in International Conflict Management. She is currently an intern at the Carter Center’s China program.On November 17th, 2015, the Ugandan government, led by President Yoweri Museveni, signed an agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China (Exim Bank), for a loan of ”. The loan agreement was reached in 2015 and stipulated a maturity term of twenty years with a seven-year grace period which ends in 2022. Critical Ugandan assets, including Uganda’s only international airport, were attached to the...

Apr 4
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