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The Semiconductor Surge

The Semiconductor Surge

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.Over the last year, we have covered the rapid rise of technology, accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic. In recent news, Taiwan’s exports have rapidly risen, with technology and semiconductor exports up 30% over the prior year in each of the last two months. Investors are taking notice, with US semiconductor stocks up 10% in 2021 alone. Morgan Stanley’s Chairman of Global Semiconductor Investment Banking, Mark Edelstone, is...

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Michelle
2d ago
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Weekly Macro Summary 01/17/2021

Weekly Macro Summary 01/17/2021

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.If you would like to receive the Weekly Macro Summary directly to your mailbox every Sunday, please subscribe. It’s free.Goldman Sachs, “The Re-opening at a Glance”US headline retail sales for December weaker than expected, -0.7%m/m versus consensus at 0.US CPI for December came in line with expectations, core CPI +0.09% m/m and 1.6% y/y.US JOLTS Job Openings little changed from November and in line with consensus at...

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Michelle
Jan 18
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The SPAC Revolution

The SPAC Revolution

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.In the United States, democrats now have control of the Senate (via a tie-break by the new Vice President). The completion of the, “Dem Sweep” reduces the likelihood of legislative gridlock and clears the path for significant fiscal expansion. On Friday, President-elect, Joe Biden, repeated his call to boost stimulus payments for Americans to $2,000 from the $600 that was passed in the stimulus bill from...

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Michelle
Jan 10
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Things That Go Up: Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Business Confidence, Industrial Production, Equities, COVID-19 Cases, and the GBP

Things That Go Up: Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Business Confidence, Industrial Production, Equities, COVID-19 Cases, and the GBP

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.The S&P500 has gained 2.4% for December, thus far, bringing its year to date total just shy of 17%. The tech-centric Nasdaq 100 is up a remarkable 47%. All of this is occurring while several major economies, including the US, are experiencing a second wave of COVID infections and a new peak in deaths and hospitalizations as a result. In November we dubbed it, “Two Americas”. In risk assets, sentiment measures are...

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Michelle
Dec 20
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Vaccine Approval in the West

Vaccine Approval in the West

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.Pfizer and BioNTech’s mRNA-based vaccine has been approved for use in the United Kingdom, Canada, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, and has received emergency use authorization on December 11th from the FDA in the United States. In US trials, “less than two weeks after the first dose, the vaccine started protecting [recipients], and the second dose three weeks later boosted their immune response.” Vaccinations for front-line...

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Michelle
Dec 13
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Employment Worries Amid A Record Market

Employment Worries Amid A Record Market

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.The S&P500 had one of its best single-month performances of the past 40 years in November; it finished up 11%. The Russell 2000 closed up 18% and the US equity markets were led higher by a 28% and 16% rally in energy stocks and financials, respectively. So, what now? Work done by Bespoke Investment Group shows that in the last 40 years, when the S&P 500 has been up 10% or more year to date through the end of November, the...

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Michelle
Dec 6
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There’s No Place Like Home: The Continued Rise of the Housing Market

There’s No Place Like Home: The Continued Rise of the Housing Market

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.Ahead of a shortened week in markets because of american Thanksgiving, we’re delivering an abridged summary. Once again, you’ll see a significant focus on the continued rise of the US housing market. As we noted during our , “housing is arguably the most important data point to watch in order to measure COVID’s impact on the economy as well as prospects for a recovery…there is a significant secular demographic tailwind...

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Michelle
Nov 22
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Two Americas: A Divided Nation and Economy

Two Americas: A Divided Nation and Economy

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.As of this writing, Joe Biden is projected to be the President-elect of the United States. The market responded to Biden’s win and, what appears to be, a split Congress with a show of significant strength. The S&P 500 rallied 7% and the tech-centric Nasdaq 100 rallied 9%. There are two uncertain issues likely to capture investors attention in the coming weeks. The first issue will be the prospects for fiscal stimulus. With...

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Michelle
Nov 8
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Free Fallin’: A Pre-Election Stock Market Story

Free Fallin’: A Pre-Election Stock Market Story

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.The S&P 500 fell 5.5% this week, this was the stock market’s worst weekly performance leading up to a presidential election in history. Uncharacteristically, the 10 year treasury yield rose 2 basis points (safe-haven bonds fell in price). This is an unusual dynamic given Treasury bonds historical tendency to rise (yields fall) during periods of stock market weakness. Despite strong tech company earnings and a remarkably...

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Michelle
Nov 1
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Unlocking the Housing Market - Everybody Wants Some

Unlocking the Housing Market - Everybody Wants Some

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.We are approaching the heart of earnings season. As of this writing, a little over one-quarter of S&P500 companies have reported their Q3 results. Results are off to a remarkably good start. According to Factset, "The percentage of S&P 500 companies beating EPS estimates for the third quarter and the magnitude of the earnings beats are at or near record levels." 84% of companies have beat EPS estimates and 81% of companies...

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Michelle
Oct 25
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Elevated Volatility Amid Elevated Uncertainty

Elevated Volatility Amid Elevated Uncertainty

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.Barring the passing of a significant stimulus package in the United States, it is expected that there will be little to drive markets outside of their recent ranges until the election. You may recall that last week we highlighted that the VIX (the US benchmark volatility index) had closed above 20 for 158 trading days, the longest streak since during the global financial crisis. Despite rising stock prices, implied levels...

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Michelle
Oct 18
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Powell Policy: Too much is better than not enough

Powell Policy: Too much is better than not enough

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.It has been widely reported that in 2008, during the heart of the financial crisis, the Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson (a former Goldman Sachs CEO), was pleading with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Democrat leadership to support a proposed rescue package that Paulson and his team had constructed to save the American financial system. At one point, in a moment of levity, the former Goldman Sachs CEO kneeled in...

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Michelle
Oct 11
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While the Going is Good: Accommodative Policies, Reflation, and the IPO Boom

While the Going is Good: Accommodative Policies, Reflation, and the IPO Boom

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.In the past week, global economic data continued to demonstrate improvement but the pace of growth and economic healing has slowed. In recent weeks, Federal Reserve members have consistently expressed the need for, and benefits of, additional fiscal stimulus. As discussions between Democrats and Republicans escalated, US and global markets responded frequently and substantively to headlines related to progress on a new...

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Michelle
Oct 4
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Diverging Fortunes - The Rising Tide Doesn’t Lift All Ships

Diverging Fortunes - The Rising Tide Doesn’t Lift All Ships

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.The theme of this week’s report is the stark contrast in the economic recovery for individuals, industries, and countries. We explore the dramatic difference in performance for sectors of the labor market as well as the stock market in what the media has labeled a, “K shaped” recovery because some have made a complete recovery while others are still at or near their low points. Source: Ernie Tedeschi, Evercore ISIIf you...

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Michelle
Sep 27
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Weekly Macro Summary

Weekly Macro Summary

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.Confidence in the US economy has rebounded to the highest levels of the pandemic era. Only 16% of Americans surveyed in the most recent consumer confidence survey expect the US economy to get worse over the next year. The bounce in sentiment is not strictly a US phenomenon. As you’ll see in the chart of the week below, confidence has bounced globally. Manufacturers’ sentiment levels are nearly back at the average of the...

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Michelle
Sep 20
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Weekly Macro Summary

Weekly Macro Summary

SubscribeTHIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please speak with a registered investment advisor or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.“We think that the economy’s going to need low interest rates, which support economic activity, for an extended period of time … It will be measured in years.” This was a quote from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell given during an interview with NPR. We first discussed the Fed’s shift to a flexible average inflation targeting regime a few weeks ago before it was made official. This week we, again, offer a review of...

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Michelle
Sep 6
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This One Sad Ghost Town In Maine Is The Stuff Nightmares Are Made Of

This One Sad Ghost Town In Maine Is The Stuff Nightmares Are Made Of

To an outsider, Maine may simply be a beautiful state with idyllic coastline and delectable lobster. But, once you get to know us a bit better, you’ll find that we have our fair share of strange “stuff.” Between our and downright , Maine isn’t always what it appears to be.The perfect example? The real story behind Flagstaff Lake and what lies beneath its surface.We’re aware that these uncertain times are limiting many aspects of life as we all practice social and physical distancing. While we’re continuing to feature destinations that make our state wonderful, we don’t expect or encourage...

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Michelle
Feb 6
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Most People Don't Know There's A Lost City Hiding In Maine's Flagstaff Lake

Most People Don't Know There's A Lost City Hiding In Maine's Flagstaff Lake

Maine’s history could be studied for years and the surface of what’s happened here would not even be scratched. From the people who lived here long before it was settled by Europeans to the politics of recent years, this is one fascinating and complex place. But of all the stories we’ve learned the one about this ghost town under a lake is the most interesting. And perhaps one of the saddest.We’re aware that these uncertain times are limiting many aspects of life as we all practice social and physical distancing. While we’re continuing to feature destinations that make our state wonderful,...

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Michelle
May 20
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You Can See 8 Waterfalls In Just One Day Of Hiking In New Hampshire

You Can See 8 Waterfalls In Just One Day Of Hiking In New Hampshire

There are tons of ways to enjoy the outdoors in New Hampshire. Between hikes leading to mountain peaks and splashing around in summertime lakes, those looking for a fun day outside won’t have to go far. There’s so much right outside our front doors that we started to wonder – what’s the best way to maximize a day outside while seeing (and doing!) as much as possible? Given the beauty of the state’s waterfalls, we did a little search and found that it’s possible to hike multiple waterfalls in just one day. Head to Crawford Notch to do it and consider these falls to start. Thanks to the New...

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Michelle
Mar 3
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