Key PointsAs , the bond market is already counting on lots of fiscal spending and an economic bounce back. In an extreme case, inflation might be a risk.The metric the bond market is watching is the Treasury yield curve, or the difference between rates on various maturities, now at its steepest level since May 2017.A steepening curve is typically viewed as a positive sign for the economy, the stock market and corporate earnings, while a flattening one is a warning for economic weakness.The widely watched yield curve shows the difference between short- and long-term interest rates.In this...…Key PointsAs , the bond market is already counting on lots of fiscal spending and an economic bounce back. In an extreme case, inflation might be a risk.The metric the bond market is watching is the Treasury yield curve, or the difference between rates on various maturities, now at its steepest level since May 2017.A steepening curve is typically viewed as a positive sign for the economy, the stock market and corporate earnings, while a flattening one is a warning for economic weakness.The widely watched yield curve shows the difference between short- and long-term interest rates.In this...WW…

Key PointsThe quick move higher in bond yields is sending a warning about the stock market — especially growth stocks.The benchmark has risen about 20 basis points since the start of the year — 1 basis point equals 0.01% — and was at 1.13% Monday. Still relatively low, the yield is at the highest it's been since last March, but in itself the yield is not a problem.The move could be signaling a period of more volatility for the stock market and the potential for more pressure on FANG and the other growth names that helped take the stock market higher last year. Some strategists expect those...…Key PointsThe quick move higher in bond yields is sending a warning about the stock market — especially growth stocks.The benchmark has risen about 20 basis points since the start of the year — 1 basis point equals 0.01% — and was at 1.13% Monday. Still relatively low, the yield is at the highest it's been since last March, but in itself the yield is not a problem.The move could be signaling a period of more volatility for the stock market and the potential for more pressure on FANG and the other growth names that helped take the stock market higher last year. Some strategists expect those...WW…

Key PointsThe pandemic turned 2020 into a year of unprecedented events — not the least of which was the swift crash and then record-fast recovery of the stock market.The market's race higher has been in stark contrast to an economy that has been growing slowly.Many small businesses are struggling, and more than 10.7 million people are unemployed, according to Labor Department monthly data.Even so, the market has powered higher, fueled by expectations of a period of strong growth after vaccines are widely distributed and the economy fully reopens.Those same expectations have helped draw in a...…Key PointsThe pandemic turned 2020 into a year of unprecedented events — not the least of which was the swift crash and then record-fast recovery of the stock market.The market's race higher has been in stark contrast to an economy that has been growing slowly.Many small businesses are struggling, and more than 10.7 million people are unemployed, according to Labor Department monthly data.Even so, the market has powered higher, fueled by expectations of a period of strong growth after vaccines are widely distributed and the economy fully reopens.Those same expectations have helped draw in a...WW…

Key PointsThe are a wild card for markets in the first days of the new year, and it has the potential to reshape not only the national political agenda but also the course of the markets and the economy in the year ahead.Two incumbent Republican senators are in a tight race to retain their own seats, but more importantly, they are battling to hold onto the Republican majority in the Senate in the Jan. 5 election. The but should both Republicans lose, each party would have 50 seats, leaving Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to break any tie in favor of Democrats.Dynamic Funds' Noah...…Key PointsThe are a wild card for markets in the first days of the new year, and it has the potential to reshape not only the national political agenda but also the course of the markets and the economy in the year ahead.Two incumbent Republican senators are in a tight race to retain their own seats, but more importantly, they are battling to hold onto the Republican majority in the Senate in the Jan. 5 election. The but should both Republicans lose, each party would have 50 seats, leaving Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to break any tie in favor of Democrats.Dynamic Funds' Noah...WW…

Key PointsU.S. weekly jobless claims total 853,000, the highest since SeptemberThe filings to the highest level since mid-September signals a weakening in the labor market that could drag down the economy into the first quarter.Initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped to 853,000, rising 137,000 during the week ended Dec. 5 from the prior week, the largest weekly increase since the height of economic shutdowns in March. Economists had expected 730,000 claims, according to Dow Jones. They note the Thanksgiving holiday period could have added distortions in both weeks, but the...…Key PointsU.S. weekly jobless claims total 853,000, the highest since SeptemberThe filings to the highest level since mid-September signals a weakening in the labor market that could drag down the economy into the first quarter.Initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped to 853,000, rising 137,000 during the week ended Dec. 5 from the prior week, the largest weekly increase since the height of economic shutdowns in March. Economists had expected 730,000 claims, according to Dow Jones. They note the Thanksgiving holiday period could have added distortions in both weeks, but the...WW…

Key PointsA common interest in combating climate change could be catalyst for the Biden Administration to re-engage with China.The U.S.-China relationship is at a low point and is expected to continue to be strained. The two countries are likely to remain at odds over key national security issues, like cyber espionage, Hong Kong sovereignty, human rights and China's ambitions toward Taiwan and the South China Sea.The outgoing administration of President had an increasingly contentious relationship with China, as it took steps to end what it saw as the unfair acquisition of sensitive U.S....…Key PointsA common interest in combating climate change could be catalyst for the Biden Administration to re-engage with China.The U.S.-China relationship is at a low point and is expected to continue to be strained. The two countries are likely to remain at odds over key national security issues, like cyber espionage, Hong Kong sovereignty, human rights and China's ambitions toward Taiwan and the South China Sea.The outgoing administration of President had an increasingly contentious relationship with China, as it took steps to end what it saw as the unfair acquisition of sensitive U.S....WW…

Key PointsPresident-elect Joe Biden's choice of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary was seen as a win for markets, since the former Federal Reserve chair should focus on fixing the economy rather than the progressive Democratic agenda feared by some investors.The first woman Fed chief would also be the first woman Treasury Secretary and faces unprecedented challenges of massive unemployment and a record level of debt, as the government spends even more to reverse the impact of the pandemic during the Biden administration."To me it shows Biden is taking stuff pretty seriously and definitely...…Key PointsPresident-elect Joe Biden's choice of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary was seen as a win for markets, since the former Federal Reserve chair should focus on fixing the economy rather than the progressive Democratic agenda feared by some investors.The first woman Fed chief would also be the first woman Treasury Secretary and faces unprecedented challenges of massive unemployment and a record level of debt, as the government spends even more to reverse the impact of the pandemic during the Biden administration."To me it shows Biden is taking stuff pretty seriously and definitely...WW…

Key PointsStocks could continue to struggle with the twin themes of the spreading virus and a potentially robust recovery, once a vaccine is deployed next year.In the coming week, the restrictions the spreading virus is imposing on the economy will be clear, when many Americans choose to stay at home over the Thanksgiving Day holiday and partake in much smaller celebrations."On the Covid side, there will be more lockdowns, but I think the message is loud and clear. 'People: Don't be cavalier around Thanksgiving,'" said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat. Thanksgiving traditionally kicks off the...…Key PointsStocks could continue to struggle with the twin themes of the spreading virus and a potentially robust recovery, once a vaccine is deployed next year.In the coming week, the restrictions the spreading virus is imposing on the economy will be clear, when many Americans choose to stay at home over the Thanksgiving Day holiday and partake in much smaller celebrations."On the Covid side, there will be more lockdowns, but I think the message is loud and clear. 'People: Don't be cavalier around Thanksgiving,'" said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat. Thanksgiving traditionally kicks off the...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey PointsMarkets are looking to the Federal Reserve to be a soothing force when it meets in the week ahead, but stocks could remain choppy if the central bank disappoints and as investors focus on the election and the economic recovery.The Fed's two-day meeting is expected to end Wednesday with minor tweaks to its statement and some clarity on how it plans to use forward guidance. The Fed also updates its economic and interest rate outlook, including forecasts for 2023 for the first time.But Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said the stock...…Keep Me Logged InKey PointsMarkets are looking to the Federal Reserve to be a soothing force when it meets in the week ahead, but stocks could remain choppy if the central bank disappoints and as investors focus on the election and the economic recovery.The Fed's two-day meeting is expected to end Wednesday with minor tweaks to its statement and some clarity on how it plans to use forward guidance. The Fed also updates its economic and interest rate outlook, including forecasts for 2023 for the first time.But Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said the stock...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey PointsThe worst earnings season in years is about to begin, and it's possible the stock market could shrug off the sharp profit decline, as long as companies see some signs of a recovery ahead.Earnings are expected to fall by 44%, the worst quarterly performance since the Great Recession when S&P 500 profits fell by 67% in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data. It is also expected to be the worst quarter of the pandemic crisis, revealing the extent of the earnings damage as the economy slumped more than 30%.Major financials , and are among the...…Keep Me Logged InKey PointsThe worst earnings season in years is about to begin, and it's possible the stock market could shrug off the sharp profit decline, as long as companies see some signs of a recovery ahead.Earnings are expected to fall by 44%, the worst quarterly performance since the Great Recession when S&P 500 profits fell by 67% in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data. It is also expected to be the worst quarter of the pandemic crisis, revealing the extent of the earnings damage as the economy slumped more than 30%.Major financials , and are among the...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey Points The S&P 500 broke into an important new zone Tuesday that could bullish for the market longer term, but it failed to hold onto that level and how it trades Wednesday could send an important signal.The actually crossed two key milestones when it opened above the psychological level of 3,000 for the first time since early March. But more importantly, it first broke above the 200-day moving average, a momentum indicator that signals the potential for a more bullish tone for the market. But the rally gave up steam, as tech sold off, and the S&P did not hold those...…Keep Me Logged InKey Points The S&P 500 broke into an important new zone Tuesday that could bullish for the market longer term, but it failed to hold onto that level and how it trades Wednesday could send an important signal.The actually crossed two key milestones when it opened above the psychological level of 3,000 for the first time since early March. But more importantly, it first broke above the 200-day moving average, a momentum indicator that signals the potential for a more bullish tone for the market. But the rally gave up steam, as tech sold off, and the S&P did not hold those...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey PointsThe U.S. government is moving faster than expected to stretch out the time over which it will pay down its record deficit, strategists say.As part of that plan,  the , last issued in 1986. It will debut in a $20 billion auction at 1 p.m. ET Wednesday."I think the 20-year should do fine. Obviously, we haven't seen one in a little bit of time. There's always is a little bit of uncertainty around the unknown in general," said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities.On a when-issued basis, the 20-year was yielding 1.21% Tuesday. Yields move...…Keep Me Logged InKey PointsThe U.S. government is moving faster than expected to stretch out the time over which it will pay down its record deficit, strategists say.As part of that plan,  the , last issued in 1986. It will debut in a $20 billion auction at 1 p.m. ET Wednesday."I think the 20-year should do fine. Obviously, we haven't seen one in a little bit of time. There's always is a little bit of uncertainty around the unknown in general," said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities.On a when-issued basis, the 20-year was yielding 1.21% Tuesday. Yields move...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey Pointst will be horrific, and with the worst job losses ever, it should provide a critical look into the depths of the crater the economy has fallen into.Economists expect a record 21.5 million jobs were lost last month, sending the unemployment rate sharply higher to 16% from just 4.4%, according to Dow Jones. But economists concede that unemployment rate could be as low as 11% or higher than 20%, because of the way the government collects the data in its survey.At 16%, it would be the highest rate of unemployment since 1939, the tail end of the Great Depression and...…Keep Me Logged InKey Pointst will be horrific, and with the worst job losses ever, it should provide a critical look into the depths of the crater the economy has fallen into.Economists expect a record 21.5 million jobs were lost last month, sending the unemployment rate sharply higher to 16% from just 4.4%, according to Dow Jones. But economists concede that unemployment rate could be as low as 11% or higher than 20%, because of the way the government collects the data in its survey.At 16%, it would be the highest rate of unemployment since 1939, the tail end of the Great Depression and...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey PointsNever before has the U.S. fallen into a recession led by the services sector, so there is no real road map for the recovery.That's why economists are looking for new ways to measure a rebound from a deep recession.The recovery, they say, will depend on individual psychology, overall consumer confidence, and also whether the government was successful enough in filling the income gap for the workers who lost their jobs. The parts of the economy that were hit hardest depend the most on consumers' discretionary spending — for dining, entertainment and travel. When...…Keep Me Logged InKey PointsNever before has the U.S. fallen into a recession led by the services sector, so there is no real road map for the recovery.That's why economists are looking for new ways to measure a rebound from a deep recession.The recovery, they say, will depend on individual psychology, overall consumer confidence, and also whether the government was successful enough in filling the income gap for the workers who lost their jobs. The parts of the economy that were hit hardest depend the most on consumers' discretionary spending — for dining, entertainment and travel. When...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey PointsSqueezed by a lack of ridership, the authority that runs New York City's subways and buses may go to the Federal Reserve for a loan.The Metropolitan Transportation Authority on Tuesday , and it is holding an investor call on the offering Friday, according to a spokeswoman.The market has been closely watching the offering as a critical test for a major issuer challenged by virus-related revenue declines. The MTA is one of the biggest issuers in the $3.8 trillion municipal bond market, a market typically seen as safe with the attraction of tax exempt yields.The...…Keep Me Logged InKey PointsSqueezed by a lack of ridership, the authority that runs New York City's subways and buses may go to the Federal Reserve for a loan.The Metropolitan Transportation Authority on Tuesday , and it is holding an investor call on the offering Friday, according to a spokeswoman.The market has been closely watching the offering as a critical test for a major issuer challenged by virus-related revenue declines. The MTA is one of the biggest issuers in the $3.8 trillion municipal bond market, a market typically seen as safe with the attraction of tax exempt yields.The...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey PointsEverything from auto sales to manufacturing surveys and employment data in the coming week will likely paint a bleak picture of how much the first weeks of the coronavirus shutdown have already hit the economy.Market turbulence is expected to remain high, though volatile moves in the past week were largely to the upside. The S&P 500, by Thursday, had soared 20% intraday off its Monday low, before giving up some gains Friday. For the week, the was up 10.3% at 2,541.The market's rip higher ignited a debate about whether stocks have now bottomed, and that discussion...…Keep Me Logged InKey PointsEverything from auto sales to manufacturing surveys and employment data in the coming week will likely paint a bleak picture of how much the first weeks of the coronavirus shutdown have already hit the economy.Market turbulence is expected to remain high, though volatile moves in the past week were largely to the upside. The S&P 500, by Thursday, had soared 20% intraday off its Monday low, before giving up some gains Friday. For the week, the was up 10.3% at 2,541.The market's rip higher ignited a debate about whether stocks have now bottomed, and that discussion...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey PointsAnother 5 million workers are expected to have filed new unemployment claims last week, reflecting a larger swath of the country now under shutdown orders because of the coronavirus.Together with the claims filed in the past two weeks, the total could now surpass 15 million. But that number is still probably millions shy of the number of workers who may have already lost their jobs as the economy abruptly shut down.The unemployment claims report for the week ended April 4, is being released at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. It would be the third in a row to show millions...…Keep Me Logged InKey PointsAnother 5 million workers are expected to have filed new unemployment claims last week, reflecting a larger swath of the country now under shutdown orders because of the coronavirus.Together with the claims filed in the past two weeks, the total could now surpass 15 million. But that number is still probably millions shy of the number of workers who may have already lost their jobs as the economy abruptly shut down.The unemployment claims report for the week ended April 4, is being released at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. It would be the third in a row to show millions...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey PointsGoldman Sachs economists on Friday forecast an unprecedented 24% decline in second quarter gross domestic product, following a 6% decline in the first quarter, based on the economy's sudden and historic shutdown as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic.The economists then expect a bounce back of 12% in the third quarter and 10% in the fourth quarter, but unemployment will surge to 9%. They also expect GDP to contract by 3.8% for the full year on an annual average basis, and 3.1% on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis. Just five days ago, Goldman...…Keep Me Logged InKey PointsGoldman Sachs economists on Friday forecast an unprecedented 24% decline in second quarter gross domestic product, following a 6% decline in the first quarter, based on the economy's sudden and historic shutdown as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic.The economists then expect a bounce back of 12% in the third quarter and 10% in the fourth quarter, but unemployment will surge to 9%. They also expect GDP to contract by 3.8% for the full year on an annual average basis, and 3.1% on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis. Just five days ago, Goldman...WW…

Keep Me Logged InKey PointsWall Street is increasingly expecting the Fed to use more firepower next week and take interest rates back to the zero bound.Bank of America Global Research Friday said it now expects reduction of 100 basis points, or 1 percentage point, from the fed funds target range, currently at 1% to 1.25% after the March 3 emergency rate cut. The firm based its call on its new view that the economy will see negative growth and be on the brink of recession in coming months. Goldman Sachs on Thursday issued its own call for a 100 basis point cut. "In light of the continued...…Keep Me Logged InKey PointsWall Street is increasingly expecting the Fed to use more firepower next week and take interest rates back to the zero bound.Bank of America Global Research Friday said it now expects reduction of 100 basis points, or 1 percentage point, from the fed funds target range, currently at 1% to 1.25% after the March 3 emergency rate cut. The firm based its call on its new view that the economy will see negative growth and be on the brink of recession in coming months. Goldman Sachs on Thursday issued its own call for a 100 basis point cut. "In light of the continued...WW…