christophe-barraud.com
christophe-barraud.com
Chief Economist and Strategist at Market Securities since 2011, I have been awarded by Bloomberg the title of Top Forecaster of the U.S. Economy (since 2012), Eurozone Economy (since 2015) and Chinese Economy (since 2017).Source
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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 26th) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 26th) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 28 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts. Source: 1/21. Sep 26 to Oct 02 – Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).Data: Powered by &— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) Germany's confirmed coronavirus cases rise by 2,507 to 282,730:...

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Morning Brief - September 25th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Morning Brief - September 25th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Investors pull $25.8 billion from U.S. equity funds: BofA— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz)🇺🇸 Democrats Crafting New $2.4 Trillion Stimulus Bill to Spur Talks – Bloomberg— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud)🇺🇸 | Powell Hints Small Business, Unemployment Aid Most Important – Bloomberg— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud)NEW: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard is widely seen as Joe Biden's leading choice for Treasury Secretary if he wins in November— Bloomberg Economics (@economics)U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the Senate Banking Committee that a targeted Covid-19 pandemic relief...

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Morning Brief - September 24th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Morning Brief - September 24th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

🇺🇸 Fed Pleads Anew for Stimulus, and Markets Start to Give Up Hope💥 Parade of central bankers warn of slowdown after solid restart💥 Careful Powell contrasts with full-throated calls from others— PiQ (@PriapusIQ)WATCH: 'The recovery will go faster if there is support coming both from Congress and from the Fed,' Jerome Powell told lawmakers— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz)Apart from asking local politicians in Wisconsin to be vigilant about 's propaganda and espionage campaigns, also encouraged business people to ignore 's threats and increase interaction with .— William Yang...

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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 25th) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 25th) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 28 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts. Source: 🇩🇪 's confirmed cases rise by 2,153 on Fri. (v 2,143 prior and 1,916 last Fri.) – RKI*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🚨Datos por comunidades 24/09/2020:⚠️Hoy hay 10.653 nuevos positivos.– Evolución IA= Incidencia acumulada (indica cuantos casos,...

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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 24th) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 24th) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 28 European countries (v 27 yesterday) have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts. Source: 🇩🇪 's confirmed cases rise by 2,143 on Thu. (v 1,769 prior and 2,194 last Thu.) – RKI*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🚨Datos por comunidades 23/09/2020:⚠️Hoy hay 11.289 nuevos positivos.– Evolución IA= Incidencia acumulada (indica...

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Morning Brief - September 23rd 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Morning Brief - September 23rd 2020 - Christophe Barraud

🇺🇸 U.S. House passes stopgap funding bill to avoid government shutdown – Reuters— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud)Top U.S. economic policymakers opened the door to further aid for small businesses hit by the shutdown-triggered recession, but differed over how broad it might extend and the manner in which it should be delivered. More here:— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz)NEW: New York considers hiking taxes for the rich to fill COVID-19 hole— The Hill (@thehill)GOP will ask Supreme Court to limit mail voting in Pennsylvania in first post-RBG test— The Hill (@thehill)New Washington Post...

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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 23rd) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 23rd) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 27 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts. Source: 🇩🇪 's confirmed cases rise by 1,769 on Wed. (v 1,821 prior and 1,901 last Wed.) – RKI*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🇪🇸 'S NEW INFECTIONS REACH 3,125 (IN THE LAST 24 HOURS) VS 2,957 MON. AND 3,022 LAST TUE.: HEALTH MINISTRY*Link:*Total new cases...

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Week Ahead - w39 - Christophe Barraud

Week Ahead - w39 - Christophe Barraud

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 The US is due to conclude its preliminary investigation into whether the #yuan is being undervalued to give Chinese exporters an advantage on Monday. (21)🇭🇰 A survey beginning on Monday will decide whether most of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy lawmakers will serve an extended term. (21)🇬🇧 Britain is at a “critical point” in the coronavirus pandemic, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be told . (21)🇮🇹 Italy has regional elections that will test the country’s “red wall” as well as a referendum on reducing the number of MPs. (21)🇬🇧 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will have a chance to...

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Tips From Top Forecaster: U.S. Economic Calendar (w39) | Existing Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders - Christophe Barraud

Tips From Top Forecaster: U.S. Economic Calendar (w39) | Existing Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders - Christophe Barraud

Existing Home Sales for August – Bloomberg consensus: 6.01m(e) v 5.86m prior🟢 Another increase in Existing Home Sales would be coherent with the bounce in Pending Home Sales. As the (NAR) noted, “The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS), a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.” In this context, It would be...

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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 21st) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 21st) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 27 European countries (v 26 prior) have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.Source: 🇬🇧 U.K. at ‘Critical Point’ in Virus Surge With London at Risk- Bloomberg— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🇩🇪 's confirmed cases rise by 922 on Mon. (v 1,345 prior and 927 last Mon.) – RKI*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🦠 Casos...

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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 22nd) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 22nd) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 27 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.Source: 🇪🇺 Threat of Lethal Autumn Looms in After Reprieve – Bloomberg*French, German data show virus spreading in older people *Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🇪🇺 What I wrote in mid-August:"it seems that risks linked to the healthcare situation remains...

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Morning Brief - September 22nd 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Morning Brief - September 22nd 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Wall Street's main indexes closed lower as concerns about new lockdowns in Europe and possible delays in fresh stimulus from Congress raised fears for the U.S. economy— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz)Coronavirus latest: US reports smallest rise in Covid-19 deaths in two weeks— Financial Times (@FT)🇺🇸 U.S. Stimulus Prospects Darken With Partisan Strains Over Court – Bloomberg— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud)🇺🇸 ’s Powell Says U.S. Economy Faces Long, Uncertain Recovery – Bloomberg— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud)Fed chief Powell slated for first of week's three congressional appearances—...

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Morning Brief - September 21st 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Morning Brief - September 21st 2020 - Christophe Barraud

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 US ruling on ’s alleged yuan undervaluation could stoke further rift in relations – SCMP*The US is due to conclude its preliminary investigation into whether the is being undervalued to give Chinese exporters an advantage on Monday.— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud)🇺🇸 🇨🇳 U.S. judge halts Commerce Department order to remove from app stores – Reuters— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud)🇺🇸 🌎 'FinCEN' documents reportedly show banks moved illicit funds – BuzzFeed, ICIJ – Reuters— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud)🇺🇸 State: to Pause Unemployment Claims for 2 Weeks – US News.— Christophe...

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Preview: U.S. August Existing Home Sales Report - Christophe Barraud

Preview: U.S. August Existing Home Sales Report - Christophe Barraud

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release the Existing Home Sales (EHS) report for August. According to the Bloomberg consensus, EHS should increase by 2.6% MoM to 6.01M SAAR.→ My proxies confirm that EHS should be close to 6.0M in August, which would be the highest since December 2006.→ Local/state data and different reports also point to a jump of median home sales price amid a continued decline in inventory. Fundamentals improved with a sharp decline of mortgage rates. According to Freddie Mac, the average for a 30-year fixed-rate loan remained below 2.90%,...

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Sunday Brief - September 20th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Sunday Brief - September 20th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Daily coronavirus thread: The US reported its smallest rise in deaths in three days, the WHO made a last push for countries to join its vaccine effort and England will impose tough new restrictions on Friday. Follow our live coverage:— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes)🇺🇸 Companies Brace for Higher Taxes After U.S. Election – WSJ— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud)Big investors who own shares in and trade with the largest banks should push lenders to reduce risks by increasing capital levels, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says— Bloomberg Economics (@economics)🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Wants $5 Billion...

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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 20th) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 20th) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 26 European countries (v 25 prior) have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.Source: 🇩🇪 's confirmed cases rise by 1,345 on Sun. (v 2,297 prior and 948 last Sun.) – RKI*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) Pacientes COVID UCI en España por cada 100.000 habitantes— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey)🇪🇸 | orders 850,000 people in...

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Sep 20
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Saturday Brief - September 19th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Saturday Brief - September 19th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Wall Street suffered its first three-week drop in almost a year as investors continued to cut back on high-flying tech stocks. More here:— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz)🇺🇸 Some Wishes Come True for Active Funds in Weekly Shakeout – Bloomberg*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud)The caps, announced in June, restrict banks from increasing investor payouts above second-quarter levels and ban all buybacks.— BloombergQuint (@BloombergQuint)Pelosi: 'Hard to see' Democrats supporting less than $2.2T in COVID-19 aid | TheHill— Scott Wong (@scottwongDC)U.S. House Speaker Pelosi to confer with...

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Sep 19
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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 19th) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 19th) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 25 European countries (v 24 prior) have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.Source: 🇩🇪 's confirmed cases rise by 2,297 on Sat. (v 1,916 prior and 1,630 last Sat.) – RKI*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🇪🇸 'S NEW INFECTIONS REACH 4,697 (IN THE LAST 24 HOURS) VS 4,541 THU. AND 4,708 LAST FRI.: HEALTH...

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Sep 19
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Morning Brief - September 18th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Morning Brief - September 18th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

The Fed is considering extending the unprecedented constraints on dividend payments and share buybacks it imposed on the biggest banks— Bloomberg Economics (@economics)U.S. stimulus risks are simmering in volatility markets— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia)The World Trade Organization is set to announce the departure of three candidates in the race to lead the trade body— Bloomberg Economics (@economics)ByteDance’s bid to keep majority ownership of its popular short video app TikTok in the United States faces major two hurdles. More here:— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz)President Trump...

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Sep 18
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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 18th) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 18th) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 24 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.Source: 🇩🇪 's confirmed cases rise by 1,916 on Fri. (v 2,194 prior and 1,484 last Fri.) – RKI*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🇪🇸 'S NEW INFECTIONS REACH 4,541 (IN THE LAST 24 HOURS) VS 4,728 WED. AND 4,137 LAST THU.: HEALTH MINISTRY*Link:*Total new cases...

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Sep 18
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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 17th) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 17th) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 24 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.Source: 🇩🇪 's confirmed cases rise by 2,194 on Thu. (v 1,901 prior and 1,892 last Thu.) – RKI*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🇪🇸 'S NEW INFECTIONS REACH 4,728 (IN THE LAST 24 HOURS) VS 3,022 TUE. AND 4,410 LAST WED.: HEALTH MINISTRY*Link:*Total new cases...

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Sep 17
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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 16th) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 16th) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 24 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.Source: 🇩🇪 's confirmed cases rise by 1,901 on Wed. (v 1,407 prior and 1,179 last Wed.) – RKI*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🇪🇸 'S NEW INFECTIONS REACH 3,022 (IN THE LAST 24 HOURS) VS 3,023 MON. AND 3,168 LAST TUE.: HEALTH MINISTRY*Link:*Total new cases...

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Sep 16
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France: A less pessimistic outlook for 2020 thanks to the summer season but caution for the end of the year - Christophe Barraud

France: A less pessimistic outlook for 2020 thanks to the summer season but caution for the end of the year - Christophe Barraud

Here is the first Macrospitality Brief, written jointly with , CEO of . By relying on a unique database and combining a macroeconomic and sectoral (hospitality) vision, our objective is to understand and try to forecast the economic dynamics in France but also abroad. It will also be published on the website.After a disastrous start of the year marked by the worst recession since the WWII, the French economy’s 2020 growth outlook has now slightly improved. The upturn in economic activity since May has been stronger than expected and it continued during the summer vacations. The beginning of...

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Sep 16
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Sunday Brief - September 13th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Sunday Brief - September 13th 2020 - Christophe Barraud

Here's the latest on what's moving markets in the Middle East today— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia)Sunday shows preview: With less than two months to go, race for the White House heats up— The Hill (@thehill)Republicans Are Knocking On Doors. Democrats Aren't. Biden's Campaign Says That's OK— NPR Politics (@nprpolitics)Most voters don't see Trump and Biden as mentally fit to be president, according to a new CNBC/ survey.— CNBC (@CNBC)U.S. 'deeply concerned' about Hong Kong activists held in China: Pompeo— Reuters (@Reuters)This week ahead— US cuts off Huawei— TikTok sale deadline— Japan...

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Sep 13
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Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 15th) - Christophe Barraud

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (September 15th) - Christophe Barraud

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 24 European countries (v 25 prior) have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts. Source: 🇩🇪 's confirmed cases rise by 1,407 on Tue. (v 927 prior and 1,499 last Tue.) – RKI*Link:— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) 🇪🇸 'S NEW INFECTIONS REACH 3,023 (IN THE LAST 24 HOURS) VS 4,708 FRI. AND 2,440 LAST MON.: HEALTH MINISTRY*Link:*Total...

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Sep 15
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Christophe Barraud

Christophe Barraud

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