fivethirtyeight.com
fivethirtyeight.com
FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008 as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. In July 2013, ESPN acquired FiveThirtyEight, hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for ESPN.com; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics and popular culture. In 2018, the operations were transferred to ESPN sister property ABC News.Source
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Once You Get The COVID-19 Vaccine, Can You Still Infect Others?

Once You Get The COVID-19 Vaccine, Can You Still Infect Others?

Now that the world has successfully completed history’s fastest development of a new vaccine, you might be wondering why we don’t always just make one this fast. If the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are safe and effective and the process to produce them didn’t cut any corners … well, why does it normally take around a decade to do something we just did in less than a year? The answer to that question is inextricably tied up with another question floating around: Once you get the vaccine, can you just go back to your normal life full of hugging people and not wearing a mask? If only we knew...

December 18, 2020
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GOP Politicians Are Much More Resistant To Gun Control Than GOP Voters Are

GOP Politicians Are Much More Resistant To Gun Control Than GOP Voters Are

Polls show that Republican voters prioritize gun rights over gun control but aren’t universally opposed to restrictions on firearms. In fact, most Republicans support expanding background checks. Most back “red flag” provisions allowing the police to take guns away from people deemed dangerous by a judge. A majority support requiring a license to purchase a gun. So with Democrats calling on the GOP-controlled Senate to take action on gun control in the wake of last weekend’s mass shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio — in particular, to pass a bill adopted in February by the...

August 7, 2019
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How Jayson Tatum Changed His Game And Became A Star

How Jayson Tatum Changed His Game And Became A Star

Back in 2017, the Boston Celtics secured the No. 1 overall selection in the NBA draft thanks to a pick swap acquired in the famed Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett blockbuster trade. Just about everyone thought that University of Washington guard Markelle Fultz was the top available prospect, but Celtics general manager Danny Ainge saw things differently. Rather than standing pat and selecting the player nearly everyone viewed as the best prospect, Ainge traded down and almost immediately declared that he expected to get the same player at No. 3 that he would have taken at No. 1. The twists and...

February 23, 2020
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Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

Models predicting the potential spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have become a fixture of American life. Yet each model tells a different story about the loss of life to come, making it hard to know which one is “right.” But COVID-19 models aren’t made to be unquestioned oracles. They’re not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the range of possibilities given the facts on the ground. One of their more sober tasks is predicting the number of Americans who will die due to COVID-19. FiveThirtyEight — with the help of data compiled by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub — has assembled 15...

May 1, 2020
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Why A Biden Blowout Didn’t Happen (And Why A 2024 Blowout Is Unlikely, Too)

Why A Biden Blowout Didn’t Happen (And Why A 2024 Blowout Is Unlikely, Too)

President Biden of unity early in his presidency — a vision that will be hard to achieve. There are multiple factors working against him, including and the increased inability of people from the opposing party . The race between Biden and former President Donald Trump was also just really close, underscoring how divided the country is electorally.In fact, we’re living in the most competitive era of presidential politics in the nation’s history. As the chart below shows, the 2020 election is now the ninth consecutive presidential election in which the national popular vote margin was smaller...

February 2, 2021
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Do Americans Support Removing Trump From Office?

Do Americans Support Removing Trump From Office?

By , and Latest newsWednesday evening, the House passed its aimed at removing President Trump from office. But as FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. wrote, it was still , with only 10 Republicans joining the latest rebuke of the president. What happens next is, in many ways, anyone’s guess, but it doesn’t seem as if we’ll have an answer before Joe Biden’s inauguration next week. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is reported to , but McConnell has indicated that he thinks until after Trump leaves office. Welcome, in other words, to the limbo period in the 2021 impeachment...

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January 13, 2021
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Kobe Bryant Punched A Teammate Over $100, And It Wasn’t Shaq

Kobe Bryant Punched A Teammate Over $100, And It Wasn’t Shaq

Jeff Pearlman is a New York Times bestselling author who has written for Sports Illustrated, ESPN and The Athletic, among other outlets. His books include “Football for a Buck,” “Gunslinger” and “The Bad Guys Won!” This excerpt is from his latest book, “,” which is available now.It’s February 21, 2002. We are in Cleveland. Only this is pre-LeBron Cleveland, a ceaselessly pewter-skyed city that provides the razzle of an armpit. There is nothing of particular note to do here, so when NBA players come to town, they do — largely — nothing. Sit in the hotel room. Flick around the remote control....

September 25, 2020
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Would You Manage 70 Children And A 15-Ton Vehicle For $18 An Hour?

Would You Manage 70 Children And A 15-Ton Vehicle For $18 An Hour?

This article is a collaboration between FiveThirtyEight and , a nonprofit newsroom reporting on issues that affect women.One day last spring, Naima Kaidi waited nearly an hour for her kindergartener and first-grader to get home from school. She stood on the corner near her house, but the bus was nowhere to be seen and there was no word why it was so late. Northport Elementary in Brooklyn Center, Minnesota, had only recently reopened for in-person classes, and day after day, Kaidi’s family had been struggling with late school bus drop-offs. This day was the worst. Cold and worried, she...

Nov 11
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The Thunder Have Been Busier This Offseason Than Any Team In NBA History

The Thunder Have Been Busier This Offseason Than Any Team In NBA History

No NBA team had a busier offseason than the Oklahoma City Thunder. After being eliminated from the 2020 playoffs by the rival Houston Rockets, the Thunder parted ways with longtime head coach Billy Donovan, with the two sides not to pursue a new contract. A little more than two months later, the Thunder , who had been the franchise’s G League coach for five seasons before joining Donovan on the bench last year.Of course, the Thunder’s wheeling and dealing had yet to even begin when they hired Daigneault, but within days, general manager Sam Presti agreed to a sweeping series of deals meant...

December 11, 2020
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Myles Turner’s Game Has Evolved. The Box Score Doesn’t Know It Yet.

Myles Turner’s Game Has Evolved. The Box Score Doesn’t Know It Yet.

Five nights into the NBA season, when the Pacers dismantled the Chicago Bulls, a number of Indiana players left their imprint on the contest.Former Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon finished with 18 points and six assists. Two-time All-Star Victor Oladipo caught fire, going 5-for-5 from deep en route to 22 points. Domantas Sabonis, an All-Star himself, logged 22 points of his own and had a triple-double. Swingman T.J. Warren, continuing , managed to outscore everyone, logging a game-high 23 points.Far less distinguishable in the lopsided box score that evening was center Myles Turner, who...

February 10, 2021
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