The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans. How could Donald Trump win the presidency when he was behind in the polls? As Election Day approaches in 2020, it once again looks like the Democratic candidate is in the lead. But can we really trust what pollsters are telling us? FiveThirtyEight database journalist Dhrumil Mehta explains why you shouldn’t give up on polling.Dhrumil Mehta is a database journalist at FiveThirtyEight focusing on politics.Michael Tabb is a video and motion graphics producer at FiveThirtyEight.Anna Rothschild is FiveThirtyEight’s senior...…The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans. How could Donald Trump win the presidency when he was behind in the polls? As Election Day approaches in 2020, it once again looks like the Democratic candidate is in the lead. But can we really trust what pollsters are telling us? FiveThirtyEight database journalist Dhrumil Mehta explains why you shouldn’t give up on polling.Dhrumil Mehta is a database journalist at FiveThirtyEight focusing on politics.Michael Tabb is a video and motion graphics producer at FiveThirtyEight.Anna Rothschild is FiveThirtyEight’s senior...WW…

In this episode of the the crew discusses how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 election and how they’re being litigated right now.Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux is a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight.Nathaniel Rakich is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Filed under…In this episode of the the crew discusses how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 election and how they’re being litigated right now.Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux is a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight.Nathaniel Rakich is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Filed underWW…

By and Illustrations by , Candidate Portraits by With less than two weeks until Election Day, Thursday marks the final time President Trump and Joe Biden will face off in a presidential debate. As in previous debates, we’re partnering with to see how voters react to the candidates. The poll uses Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to check in with the same group of people twice — before and after the debate — to see whether the debate affects their views of the candidates or the race itself.How likely are you to vote for each?010How likely do you think each is to win?010Respondents were also given the...…By and Illustrations by , Candidate Portraits by With less than two weeks until Election Day, Thursday marks the final time President Trump and Joe Biden will face off in a presidential debate. As in previous debates, we’re partnering with to see how voters react to the candidates. The poll uses Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to check in with the same group of people twice — before and after the debate — to see whether the debate affects their views of the candidates or the race itself.How likely are you to vote for each?010How likely do you think each is to win?010Respondents were also given the...WW…

There’s a well-known truth in politics: No one group swings an election.But that doesn’t mean that the demographic trends bubbling beneath the surface can’t have an outsized effect. Take 2016. President Trump because he carried white voters without a college degree than any recent GOP presidential nominee, though there had been signs that for a while.Likewise in 2018, a strong showing by Democrats in and among helped the party retake the House, a shift we first saw in 2016 the first Republican . And this is just scratching the surface. In the past few years, we’ve also seen hints that more...…There’s a well-known truth in politics: No one group swings an election.But that doesn’t mean that the demographic trends bubbling beneath the surface can’t have an outsized effect. Take 2016. President Trump because he carried white voters without a college degree than any recent GOP presidential nominee, though there had been signs that for a while.Likewise in 2018, a strong showing by Democrats in and among helped the party retake the House, a shift we first saw in 2016 the first Republican . And this is just scratching the surface. In the past few years, we’ve also seen hints that more...WW…

As Washington Capitals forward Devante Smith-Pelly sat in the penalty box during a game at Chicago’s United Center in February 2018, he listened as a “basketball, basketball, basketball” in his direction. The Blackhawks fans taunting Smith-Pelly, who is Black, were making their position clear: Hockey isn’t for everyone, and it’s especially not for Black people.Willie O’Ree, who became the NHL’s first Black player in 1958 when he took the ice for the Bruins in a game against the Montreal Canadiens, throughout his career. When Toronto Maple Leafs forward Wayne Simmonds was on the Flyers in...…As Washington Capitals forward Devante Smith-Pelly sat in the penalty box during a game at Chicago’s United Center in February 2018, he listened as a “basketball, basketball, basketball” in his direction. The Blackhawks fans taunting Smith-Pelly, who is Black, were making their position clear: Hockey isn’t for everyone, and it’s especially not for Black people.Willie O’Ree, who became the NHL’s first Black player in 1958 when he took the ice for the Bruins in a game against the Montreal Canadiens, throughout his career. When Toronto Maple Leafs forward Wayne Simmonds was on the Flyers in...WW…

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me up…Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me upWW…

It’s another installment of , where we make a persuasive case for a hot take we’ve been hearing … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea. This time, politics podcast host and producer Galen Druke wonders how likely it is that Democrats will win the trifecta — that is, win the presidency, gain control of the Senate and maintain control of the House this November.Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.Tony Chow is a video producer for FiveThirtyEight.Filed under…It’s another installment of , where we make a persuasive case for a hot take we’ve been hearing … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea. This time, politics podcast host and producer Galen Druke wonders how likely it is that Democrats will win the trifecta — that is, win the presidency, gain control of the Senate and maintain control of the House this November.Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.Tony Chow is a video producer for FiveThirtyEight.Filed underWW…

During Tuesday night’s , the New York Jets announced they had released two-time All-Pro running back Le’veon Bell. The 0-5 Jets reportedly attempted to , but general manager Joe Douglas apparently found insufficient interest. Rather than keep Bell on the roster, New York opted to cut him outright and accept a dead-money cap hit of . Although brief, Bell’s time in New York was profitable for him: In , Bell earned 1.7 times more than he earned during his six years and 62 games played as a Pittsburgh Steeler.On Thursday night, Bell landed on his feet, upgrading from to the reigning Super Bowl...…During Tuesday night’s , the New York Jets announced they had released two-time All-Pro running back Le’veon Bell. The 0-5 Jets reportedly attempted to , but general manager Joe Douglas apparently found insufficient interest. Rather than keep Bell on the roster, New York opted to cut him outright and accept a dead-money cap hit of . Although brief, Bell’s time in New York was profitable for him: In , Bell earned 1.7 times more than he earned during his six years and 62 games played as a Pittsburgh Steeler.On Thursday night, Bell landed on his feet, upgrading from to the reigning Super Bowl...WW…

 More: |Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate have ticked up in over the past week and a half, from a 63 percent chance to a 72 percent chance. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the , Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what is responsible for the shift and what recent polling looks like in key states.You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by , the or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, .The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by . Have a...… More: |Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate have ticked up in over the past week and a half, from a 63 percent chance to a 72 percent chance. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the , Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what is responsible for the shift and what recent polling looks like in key states.You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by , the or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, .The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by . Have a...WW…

Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup.Just eight years ago, it would have been weird to put Iowa and Ohio in the same electoral category as Georgia and Texas. In the 2012 election, President Obama won Iowa by and while losing and .But in the early stages of the Trump era, Georgia and Texas got a bit more blue, while Iowa and Ohio got more red. (Exactly why these shifts happened at the same time is complicated, so let’s leave that aside for the moment.) In 2016 and 2018, these four states voted similarly — about 11 points, give or take, to the right of the country overall. That gave Trump...…Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup.Just eight years ago, it would have been weird to put Iowa and Ohio in the same electoral category as Georgia and Texas. In the 2012 election, President Obama won Iowa by and while losing and .But in the early stages of the Trump era, Georgia and Texas got a bit more blue, while Iowa and Ohio got more red. (Exactly why these shifts happened at the same time is complicated, so let’s leave that aside for the moment.) In 2016 and 2018, these four states voted similarly — about 11 points, give or take, to the right of the country overall. That gave Trump...WW…

This is the fifth in a examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states.Wisconsin is proof that politicos have short memories. In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry carried Wisconsin by just 0.4 percentage points — making it the closest state in the country. Four years earlier, it had been even closer — Democrat Al Gore won the Badger State by just 5,708 votes, or 0.2 points.But Democrat Barack Obama really connected with Wisconsin voters, winning the state by 14 points in 2008 and 7 points in 2012. Going into 2016, that contributed to a sense that...…This is the fifth in a examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states.Wisconsin is proof that politicos have short memories. In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry carried Wisconsin by just 0.4 percentage points — making it the closest state in the country. Four years earlier, it had been even closer — Democrat Al Gore won the Badger State by just 5,708 votes, or 0.2 points.But Democrat Barack Obama really connected with Wisconsin voters, winning the state by 14 points in 2008 and 7 points in 2012. Going into 2016, that contributed to a sense that...WW…

It’s hard to argue against a phrase like “save the children.” Which, presumably, is why QAnon uses it as a hashtag. The growing online conspiracy cult has co-opted the phrase to push falsehoods about pedophiles who run the world. But in promoting its radical worldview, QAnon has made life difficult for the organizations actually trying to save children. And the results could be putting kids at risk.QAnon is a baseless conspiracy regardless of how deep you go, but its fixation on pedophilia is particularly unmoored. Devoted QAnon followers believe — to varying levels of detail — that there...…It’s hard to argue against a phrase like “save the children.” Which, presumably, is why QAnon uses it as a hashtag. The growing online conspiracy cult has co-opted the phrase to push falsehoods about pedophiles who run the world. But in promoting its radical worldview, QAnon has made life difficult for the organizations actually trying to save children. And the results could be putting kids at risk.QAnon is a baseless conspiracy regardless of how deep you go, but its fixation on pedophilia is particularly unmoored. Devoted QAnon followers believe — to varying levels of detail — that there...WW…

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me up…Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me upWW…

Just how conservative is Amy Coney Barrett?It’s a question we’ve asked before with other appellate judges who have been nominated to the Supreme Court — most recently with but it’s surprisingly difficult to answer with any precision. On the one hand, we know that Barrett’s appointment would , as she is far more ideologically conservative than the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. But on the other hand, we don’t really know how conservative Barrett would be if she’s confirmed.We can look to her track record on the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, though, for clues. Barrett has served on...…Just how conservative is Amy Coney Barrett?It’s a question we’ve asked before with other appellate judges who have been nominated to the Supreme Court — most recently with but it’s surprisingly difficult to answer with any precision. On the one hand, we know that Barrett’s appointment would , as she is far more ideologically conservative than the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. But on the other hand, we don’t really know how conservative Barrett would be if she’s confirmed.We can look to her track record on the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, though, for clues. Barrett has served on...WW…

Modern Supreme Court confirmation hearings seem like they should be deeply consequential — especially when the nominee has the power to . But in reality, they can feel like an exercise in futility. Amy Coney Barrett’s hearings, which just wrapped up their third day, are no exception. As my colleague Perry Bacon Jr. wrote yesterday, we’ve mostly learned that Barrett is very good at politely . And at one point during the hearings on Wednesday, the question-and-answer session among the Republican senators about the Houston Astros.There were some crumbs of information that came out of the two...…Modern Supreme Court confirmation hearings seem like they should be deeply consequential — especially when the nominee has the power to . But in reality, they can feel like an exercise in futility. Amy Coney Barrett’s hearings, which just wrapped up their third day, are no exception. As my colleague Perry Bacon Jr. wrote yesterday, we’ve mostly learned that Barrett is very good at politely . And at one point during the hearings on Wednesday, the question-and-answer session among the Republican senators about the Houston Astros.There were some crumbs of information that came out of the two...WW…

In her first day of questioning from senators, Supreme Court nominee Amy Comey Barrett . Or . Or . Or really anything else. She wouldn’t even say how she would rule if President Trump , as he earlier this year. (There is no real indication that Trump will follow through on that idea.)Barrett’s refusal to offer her views on virtually every issue wasn’t surprising — almost . But that approach turned Tuesday’s hearings into … OK, I’ll just say it: a farce.Barrett is a and describes him as . She’s aligned herself with . She’s been , was part of appointed by the Trump administration at the...…In her first day of questioning from senators, Supreme Court nominee Amy Comey Barrett . Or . Or . Or really anything else. She wouldn’t even say how she would rule if President Trump , as he earlier this year. (There is no real indication that Trump will follow through on that idea.)Barrett’s refusal to offer her views on virtually every issue wasn’t surprising — almost . But that approach turned Tuesday’s hearings into … OK, I’ll just say it: a farce.Barrett is a and describes him as . She’s aligned herself with . She’s been , was part of appointed by the Trump administration at the...WW…

As many states have to encourage the use of mail voting during the pandemic, one big problem has become apparent: the number of mail ballots that are rejected.Rejected absentee ballots, most of which are cast by mail, have long been an issue, but a manageable one. According to the , less than 1 percent of the 33.4 million absentee ballots submitted in the 2016 general election across the 50 states and Washington, D.C., were rejected. This year, though, rejection rates could be much higher because so many people are voting by mail for the first time and may not know the rules. According to ,...…As many states have to encourage the use of mail voting during the pandemic, one big problem has become apparent: the number of mail ballots that are rejected.Rejected absentee ballots, most of which are cast by mail, have long been an issue, but a manageable one. According to the , less than 1 percent of the 33.4 million absentee ballots submitted in the 2016 general election across the 50 states and Washington, D.C., were rejected. This year, though, rejection rates could be much higher because so many people are voting by mail for the first time and may not know the rules. According to ,...WW…

Looking for the national forecast? Click me!We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible. Seat won in a runoffSee how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.PollsterRatingPollsterLeaderPick a model! What Election Day looks like based on polls alone What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more...…Looking for the national forecast? Click me!We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible. Seat won in a runoffSee how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.PollsterRatingPollsterLeaderPick a model! What Election Day looks like based on polls alone What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more...WW…

Four planned days of Senate for President Trump’s latest Supreme Court nominee, Judge Amy Coney Barrett, begin today. And they are going to be a doozy.Confirmation proceedings have generally gotten much more contentious over the years. But the fight over Barrett could be among the most rancorous yet. The presidential election is only three weeks away, yet Republicans are pushing ahead with the confirmation even though ; Trump and two Republican senators on the Judiciary Committee have , throwing the whole timeline into jeopardy; and Barrett, if confirmed, would replace a justice who was in...…Four planned days of Senate for President Trump’s latest Supreme Court nominee, Judge Amy Coney Barrett, begin today. And they are going to be a doozy.Confirmation proceedings have generally gotten much more contentious over the years. But the fight over Barrett could be among the most rancorous yet. The presidential election is only three weeks away, yet Republicans are pushing ahead with the confirmation even though ; Trump and two Republican senators on the Judiciary Committee have , throwing the whole timeline into jeopardy; and Barrett, if confirmed, would replace a justice who was in...WW…

If you’ve watched the NFL this season and thought that there’s an awful lot of touchdowns being scored, you’re not wrong. Scoring is up across the NFL. Way up. Going into Week 5, teams had reached the end zone 371 times, the most through four weeks in NFL history. Teams are passing for — which would represent the highest rate in NFL history if it continues through the rest of the season. And the average NFL team is scoring 25.7 points per game, pushing the average combined point total .So what’s going on? There’s a host of possible explanations for the offensive explosion.Some have...…If you’ve watched the NFL this season and thought that there’s an awful lot of touchdowns being scored, you’re not wrong. Scoring is up across the NFL. Way up. Going into Week 5, teams had reached the end zone 371 times, the most through four weeks in NFL history. Teams are passing for — which would represent the highest rate in NFL history if it continues through the rest of the season. And the average NFL team is scoring 25.7 points per game, pushing the average combined point total .So what’s going on? There’s a host of possible explanations for the offensive explosion.Some have...WW…

Coming off a that vaulted the Miami Heat back into the NBA Finals, Jimmy Butler had it going again early on in Game 4. He was aggressive out of the gate, knocking down all five of his and collecting 11 points, two rebounds and two assists.What made Butler’s early game performance all the more remarkable is that the majority of his production came while he was being defended by Anthony Davis. Prior to Game 4, Davis had defended Butler on 16 possessions during this series, according to Second Spectrum, and Butler didn’t score at all. In the first quarter of Game 4, things flipped, with Butler...…Coming off a that vaulted the Miami Heat back into the NBA Finals, Jimmy Butler had it going again early on in Game 4. He was aggressive out of the gate, knocking down all five of his and collecting 11 points, two rebounds and two assists.What made Butler’s early game performance all the more remarkable is that the majority of his production came while he was being defended by Anthony Davis. Prior to Game 4, Davis had defended Butler on 16 possessions during this series, according to Second Spectrum, and Butler didn’t score at all. In the first quarter of Game 4, things flipped, with Butler...WW…

Nathaniel Rakich is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me up…Nathaniel Rakich is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me upWW…

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me up…Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me upWW…

Less than seven months after LeBron James argued that it would be “” to play games without fans, he and the Lakers are in a fight for a championship with the Miami Heat. After two largely one-sided games to open the NBA Finals, Jimmy Butler and Miami found their sea legs on Sunday night with a ferocious series of late-game drives and free throws to pull the Heat . It was a fitting twist for what has been one of the greatest crunch-time postseasons in recent memory.The Denver Nuggets alone were worthy of a “30 for 30” after they became the to overcome 3-1 deficits in consecutive series. Luka...…Less than seven months after LeBron James argued that it would be “” to play games without fans, he and the Lakers are in a fight for a championship with the Miami Heat. After two largely one-sided games to open the NBA Finals, Jimmy Butler and Miami found their sea legs on Sunday night with a ferocious series of late-game drives and free throws to pull the Heat . It was a fitting twist for what has been one of the greatest crunch-time postseasons in recent memory.The Denver Nuggets alone were worthy of a “30 for 30” after they became the to overcome 3-1 deficits in consecutive series. Luka...WW…

Lee Drutman is a senior fellow in the Political Reform program at New America. He’s the author of the book, “Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multiparty Democracy in America.”Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me up…Lee Drutman is a senior fellow in the Political Reform program at New America. He’s the author of the book, “Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multiparty Democracy in America.”Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me upWW…