fivethirtyeight.com
fivethirtyeight.com
FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008 as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. In July 2013, ESPN acquired FiveThirtyEight, hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for ESPN.com; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics and popular culture. In 2018, the operations were transferred to ESPN sister property ABC News.Source
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Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020

Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020

The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans. How could Donald Trump win the presidency when he was behind in the polls? As Election Day approaches in 2020, it once again looks like the Democratic candidate is in the lead. But can we really trust what pollsters are telling us? FiveThirtyEight database journalist Dhrumil Mehta explains why you shouldn’t give up on polling.Dhrumil Mehta is a database journalist at FiveThirtyEight focusing on politics.Michael Tabb is a video and motion graphics producer at FiveThirtyEight.Anna Rothschild is FiveThirtyEight’s senior...

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Dhrumil Mehta
2d ago
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States Changed Laws To Make It Easier To Vote In 2020. It’s Resulted In Hundreds Of Lawsuits.

States Changed Laws To Make It Easier To Vote In 2020. It’s Resulted In Hundreds Of Lawsuits.

In this episode of the the crew discusses how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 election and how they’re being litigated right now.Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux is a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight.Nathaniel Rakich is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Filed under

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Galen Druke
4d ago
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Who Will Win The Last Presidential Debate?

Who Will Win The Last Presidential Debate?

By and Illustrations by , Candidate Portraits by With less than two weeks until Election Day, Thursday marks the final time President Trump and Joe Biden will face off in a presidential debate. As in previous debates, we’re partnering with to see how voters react to the candidates. The poll uses Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to check in with the same group of people twice — before and after the debate — to see whether the debate affects their views of the candidates or the race itself.How likely are you to vote for each?010How likely do you think each is to win?010Respondents were also given the...

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4d ago
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Trump Is Losing Ground With White Voters But Gaining Among Black And Hispanic Americans

Trump Is Losing Ground With White Voters But Gaining Among Black And Hispanic Americans

There’s a well-known truth in politics: No one group swings an election.But that doesn’t mean that the demographic trends bubbling beneath the surface can’t have an outsized effect. Take 2016. President Trump because he carried white voters without a college degree than any recent GOP presidential nominee, though there had been signs that for a while.Likewise in 2018, a strong showing by Democrats in and among helped the party retake the House, a shift we first saw in 2016 the first Republican . And this is just scratching the surface. In the past few years, we’ve also seen hints that more...

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Geoffrey Skelley
6d ago
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The NHL Says ‘Hockey Is For Everyone.’ Black Players Aren’t So Sure.

The NHL Says ‘Hockey Is For Everyone.’ Black Players Aren’t So Sure.

As Washington Capitals forward Devante Smith-Pelly sat in the penalty box during a game at Chicago’s United Center in February 2018, he listened as a “basketball, basketball, basketball” in his direction. The Blackhawks fans taunting Smith-Pelly, who is Black, were making their position clear: Hockey isn’t for everyone, and it’s especially not for Black people.Willie O’Ree, who became the NHL’s first Black player in 1958 when he took the ice for the Bruins in a game against the Montreal Canadiens, throughout his career. When Toronto Maple Leafs forward Wayne Simmonds was on the Flyers in...

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Terrence Doyle
6d ago
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8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign

8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me up

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Nate Silver
7d ago
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Confidence Interval: Will Democrats Win The House, Senate And Presidency In November?

Confidence Interval: Will Democrats Win The House, Senate And Presidency In November?

It’s another installment of , where we make a persuasive case for a hot take we’ve been hearing … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea. This time, politics podcast host and producer Galen Druke wonders how likely it is that Democrats will win the trifecta — that is, win the presidency, gain control of the Senate and maintain control of the House this November.Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.Tony Chow is a video producer for FiveThirtyEight.Filed under

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Galen Druke
Oct 17
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Running Backs Are As Replaceable As Ever This Year. So Why Did Kansas City Pick Up Le’Veon Bell?

Running Backs Are As Replaceable As Ever This Year. So Why Did Kansas City Pick Up Le’Veon Bell?

During Tuesday night’s , the New York Jets announced they had released two-time All-Pro running back Le’veon Bell. The 0-5 Jets reportedly attempted to , but general manager Joe Douglas apparently found insufficient interest. Rather than keep Bell on the roster, New York opted to cut him outright and accept a dead-money cap hit of . Although brief, Bell’s time in New York was profitable for him: In , Bell earned 1.7 times more than he earned during his six years and 62 games played as a Pittsburgh Steeler.On Thursday night, Bell landed on his feet, upgrading from to the reigning Super Bowl...

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Josh Hermsmeyer
Oct 16
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Politics Podcast: Why Democrats’ Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased

Politics Podcast: Why Democrats’ Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased

 More: |Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate have ticked up in over the past week and a half, from a 63 percent chance to a 72 percent chance. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the , Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what is responsible for the shift and what recent polling looks like in key states.You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by , the or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, .The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by . Have a...

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Galen Druke
Oct 16
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Democrats Don’t Need To Win Georgia, Iowa, Ohio Or Texas — But They Could

Democrats Don’t Need To Win Georgia, Iowa, Ohio Or Texas — But They Could

Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup.Just eight years ago, it would have been weird to put Iowa and Ohio in the same electoral category as Georgia and Texas. In the 2012 election, President Obama won Iowa by and while losing and .But in the early stages of the Trump era, Georgia and Texas got a bit more blue, while Iowa and Ohio got more red. (Exactly why these shifts happened at the same time is complicated, so let’s leave that aside for the moment.) In 2016 and 2018, these four states voted similarly — about 11 points, give or take, to the right of the country overall. That gave Trump...

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Perry Bacon Jr.
Oct 16
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Wisconsin Was Never A Safe Blue State

Wisconsin Was Never A Safe Blue State

This is the fifth in a examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states.Wisconsin is proof that politicos have short memories. In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry carried Wisconsin by just 0.4 percentage points — making it the closest state in the country. Four years earlier, it had been even closer — Democrat Al Gore won the Badger State by just 5,708 votes, or 0.2 points.But Democrat Barack Obama really connected with Wisconsin voters, winning the state by 14 points in 2008 and 7 points in 2012. Going into 2016, that contributed to a sense that...

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Nathaniel Rakich
Oct 16
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QAnon’s Obsession With #SaveTheChildren Is Making It Harder To Save Kids From Traffickers

QAnon’s Obsession With #SaveTheChildren Is Making It Harder To Save Kids From Traffickers

It’s hard to argue against a phrase like “save the children.” Which, presumably, is why QAnon uses it as a hashtag. The growing online conspiracy cult has co-opted the phrase to push falsehoods about pedophiles who run the world. But in promoting its radical worldview, QAnon has made life difficult for the organizations actually trying to save children. And the results could be putting kids at risk.QAnon is a baseless conspiracy regardless of how deep you go, but its fixation on pedophilia is particularly unmoored. Devoted QAnon followers believe — to varying levels of detail — that there...

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Kaleigh Rogers
Oct 15
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Will Georgia Turn Blue?

Will Georgia Turn Blue?

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me up

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Nate Silver
Oct 14
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How Conservative Is Amy Coney Barrett?

How Conservative Is Amy Coney Barrett?

Just how conservative is Amy Coney Barrett?It’s a question we’ve asked before with other appellate judges who have been nominated to the Supreme Court — most recently with but it’s surprisingly difficult to answer with any precision. On the one hand, we know that Barrett’s appointment would , as she is far more ideologically conservative than the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. But on the other hand, we don’t really know how conservative Barrett would be if she’s confirmed.We can look to her track record on the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, though, for clues. Barrett has served on...

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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Oct 14
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What We’ve Managed To Learn About How Amy Coney Barrett Would Rule On Abortion And The Election

What We’ve Managed To Learn About How Amy Coney Barrett Would Rule On Abortion And The Election

Modern Supreme Court confirmation hearings seem like they should be deeply consequential — especially when the nominee has the power to . But in reality, they can feel like an exercise in futility. Amy Coney Barrett’s hearings, which just wrapped up their third day, are no exception. As my colleague Perry Bacon Jr. wrote yesterday, we’ve mostly learned that Barrett is very good at politely . And at one point during the hearings on Wednesday, the question-and-answer session among the Republican senators about the Houston Astros.There were some crumbs of information that came out of the two...

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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Oct 14
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Why The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings Are Verging On The Absurd

Why The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings Are Verging On The Absurd

In her first day of questioning from senators, Supreme Court nominee Amy Comey Barrett . Or . Or . Or really anything else. She wouldn’t even say how she would rule if President Trump , as he earlier this year. (There is no real indication that Trump will follow through on that idea.)Barrett’s refusal to offer her views on virtually every issue wasn’t surprising — almost . But that approach turned Tuesday’s hearings into … OK, I’ll just say it: a farce.Barrett is a and describes him as . She’s aligned herself with . She’s been , was part of appointed by the Trump administration at the...

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Perry Bacon Jr.
Oct 13
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Why Rejected Ballots Could Be A Big Problem In 2020

Why Rejected Ballots Could Be A Big Problem In 2020

As many states have to encourage the use of mail voting during the pandemic, one big problem has become apparent: the number of mail ballots that are rejected.Rejected absentee ballots, most of which are cast by mail, have long been an issue, but a manageable one. According to the , less than 1 percent of the 33.4 million absentee ballots submitted in the 2016 general election across the 50 states and Washington, D.C., were rejected. This year, though, rejection rates could be much higher because so many people are voting by mail for the first time and may not know the rules. According to ,...

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Nathaniel Rakich
Oct 13
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2020 House Forecast

2020 House Forecast

Looking for the national forecast? Click me!We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible. Seat won in a runoffSee how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.PollsterRatingPollsterLeaderPick a model! What Election Day looks like based on polls alone What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more...

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Nate Silver
Aug 12
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Why The Supreme Court’s Reputation Is At Stake

Why The Supreme Court’s Reputation Is At Stake

Four planned days of Senate for President Trump’s latest Supreme Court nominee, Judge Amy Coney Barrett, begin today. And they are going to be a doozy.Confirmation proceedings have generally gotten much more contentious over the years. But the fight over Barrett could be among the most rancorous yet. The presidential election is only three weeks away, yet Republicans are pushing ahead with the confirmation even though ; Trump and two Republican senators on the Judiciary Committee have , throwing the whole timeline into jeopardy; and Barrett, if confirmed, would replace a justice who was in...

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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Oct 12
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Scoring Is Way Up In The NFL. Which Teams Does That Help?

Scoring Is Way Up In The NFL. Which Teams Does That Help?

If you’ve watched the NFL this season and thought that there’s an awful lot of touchdowns being scored, you’re not wrong. Scoring is up across the NFL. Way up. Going into Week 5, teams had reached the end zone 371 times, the most through four weeks in NFL history. Teams are passing for — which would represent the highest rate in NFL history if it continues through the rest of the season. And the average NFL team is scoring 25.7 points per game, pushing the average combined point total .So what’s going on? There’s a host of possible explanations for the offensive explosion.Some have...

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Josh Hermsmeyer
Oct 9
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Jimmy Butler Started Hot. Then The Lakers Cooled Him Down.

Jimmy Butler Started Hot. Then The Lakers Cooled Him Down.

Coming off a that vaulted the Miami Heat back into the NBA Finals, Jimmy Butler had it going again early on in Game 4. He was aggressive out of the gate, knocking down all five of his and collecting 11 points, two rebounds and two assists.What made Butler’s early game performance all the more remarkable is that the majority of his production came while he was being defended by Anthony Davis. Prior to Game 4, Davis had defended Butler on 16 possessions during this series, according to Second Spectrum, and Butler didn’t score at all. In the first quarter of Game 4, things flipped, with Butler...

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Jared Dubin
Oct 7
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Our Forecast Thinks Democrats Will Keep The House … And Maybe Even Gain Seats

Our Forecast Thinks Democrats Will Keep The House … And Maybe Even Gain Seats

Nathaniel Rakich is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me up

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Nathaniel Rakich
Oct 7
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The Economy Was Trump’s One Remaining Advantage. Now He Might Have Blown It.

The Economy Was Trump’s One Remaining Advantage. Now He Might Have Blown It.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me up

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Nate Silver
Oct 6
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These NBA Playoffs Are All About The Clutch Shooters

These NBA Playoffs Are All About The Clutch Shooters

Less than seven months after LeBron James argued that it would be “” to play games without fans, he and the Lakers are in a fight for a championship with the Miami Heat. After two largely one-sided games to open the NBA Finals, Jimmy Butler and Miami found their sea legs on Sunday night with a ferocious series of late-game drives and free throws to pull the Heat . It was a fitting twist for what has been one of the greatest crunch-time postseasons in recent memory.The Denver Nuggets alone were worthy of a “30 for 30” after they became the to overcome 3-1 deficits in consecutive series. Luka...

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Josh Planos
Oct 5
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How Hatred Came To Dominate American Politics

How Hatred Came To Dominate American Politics

Lee Drutman is a senior fellow in the Political Reform program at New America. He’s the author of the book, “Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multiparty Democracy in America.”Filed underYou are now subscribed!Sign me up

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Lee Drutman
Oct 5
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