fivethirtyeight.com
fivethirtyeight.com
FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008 as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. In July 2013, ESPN acquired FiveThirtyEight, hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for ESPN.com; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics and popular culture. In 2018, the operations were transferred to ESPN sister property ABC News.Source
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The Gap Between Democrats And Republicans Is Growing On The Coronavirus Crisis

The Gap Between Democrats And Republicans Is Growing On The Coronavirus Crisis

Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup.When it comes to the coronavirus pandemic, one of the storylines we’ve been following is the between .The most obvious divide until this point has been largely political: that is, how Democrats and Republicans view President Trump’s handling of the pandemic. As shows, 82.2 percent of Republicans approve of the president’s response compared with just 12.5 percent of Democrats. But since Trump is arguably , it’s not exactly stunning that his approval rating on handling the crisis — 42.7 percent — is more or less identical to .By comparison, attitudes...

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Geoffrey Skelley
4d ago
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How Accurate Have State Polls Been?

How Accurate Have State Polls Been?

Our latest reinforced something we’ve been : The polls are . In particular, polls of presidential general elections have historically been quite accurate.Polls conducted in the final 21 days before the last five presidential general elections had a weighted average error of 4.0 points. (We define error as the absolute difference between a poll’s margin between the top two candidates and the actual vote share margin. For example, if a poll gave the Republican candidate a lead of 3 percentage points but the Democrat won the election by 2 points, that poll had a 5-point error.) And even in...

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Nathaniel Rakich
12h ago
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America’s Unemployment Numbers Are Stabilizing. That’s Not A Good Thing.

America’s Unemployment Numbers Are Stabilizing. That’s Not A Good Thing.

Processing the ongoing economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic can be a daunting task. The numbers involved are often with the rest of our that it’s difficult to even contextualize what they mean. For instance, filed for unemployment in the week ending May 16. On the one hand, that’s the lowest weekly total since March 14; on the other hand, it’s still 3½ times as high as the previous weekly record from before March, part of a nine-week stretch that’s seen 38.6 million initial claims filed across the country.As lockdowns , we might expect the pace of job losses to slow down if...

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Neil Paine
4d ago
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The Uncounted Dead

The Uncounted Dead

he first time Bob Duffy entered the world of epidemiology, he was an amateur scientist. It was 2003. He had retired from the New York City Fire Department and taken a sabbatical from his normal life in suburban Long Island to help his daughter Meghan earn her Ph.D. in Michigan. She was studying the ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, using tiny lake crustaceans as a model organism.Together, Meghan and Bob would go out in a truck, towing a little, flat-bottomed rowboat. They were studying how epidemics begin and spread under a variety of conditions. They’d unhitch at one lake, and...

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Maggie Koerth
6d ago
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What Would Happen If Congress Lets The States Go Broke?

What Would Happen If Congress Lets The States Go Broke?

A pandemic is an expensive thing to weather. The COVID-19 crisis has already prompted a huge drop in state tax dollars, and seems likely to in lost revenue over the upcoming fiscal year. That’s pushed governors to come to the federal government, hat in hand, . But while Democrats in Congress seem eager to oblige — the House on May 15 includes nearly $1 trillion for state, local and tribal governments — congressional Republicans and President Trump .There’s a tinge of moral and political outrage to this debate. Trump has repeatedly suggested that blue-state governors and don’t deserve a...

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Amelia Thomson
6d ago
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How Bad Is The COVID-19 Misinformation Epidemic?

How Bad Is The COVID-19 Misinformation Epidemic?

The COVID-19 pandemic has been equally defined by how much we don’t know as how much we do. That vacuum has been quickly filled with bullshit. The United Nations secretary-general has warned we’re living through “a pandemic of misinformation,” and the head of the World Health Organization said it’s an “infodemic.” In the midst of battling a global health emergency, we find ourselves fending off another scourge of conspiracy theories and misinformation.It certainly feels like there’s a lot of fake news swirling around about the coronavirus, but how does it compare to another major...

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Kaleigh Rogers
5d ago
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Will 2020 Be Another Blue Wave Election Year?

Will 2020 Be Another Blue Wave Election Year?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly . The transcript below has been lightly edited.sarah (, politics editor): The 2018 midterm elections were what we called Democrats in the House, making it the third-largest gain by any party in . However, as we cautioned then, this did not mean anything for what the electoral environment might look like in 2020. Two years is a lifetime in politics.But now we’re roughly six months away from Election Day, and it looks as if the electoral environment might once again favor Democrats. Take the Democrats’ lead over Republicans in our . It’s about 8 percentage...

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Sarah Frostenson
6d ago
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Why Is President Trump Taking Hydroxychloroquine?

Why Is President Trump Taking Hydroxychloroquine?

cwick (, deputy editor): Clare, Kaleigh and Maggie, thanks for joining me to talk about the president’s medicine cabinet. Yesterday, President Trump , an anti-malarial medication, to help prevent him from contracting COVID-19. Trump’s comments were the culmination of his interest in the drug, which as a way to help fight the pandemic. Let’s talk about what the science says about hydroxychloroquine, what Trump has said about it, and what it says about Trump that he’s taking it.So, let’s start with the science, which is about the only thing that can ground us in this frenzied moment. Can...

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Maggie Koerth
May 19
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Are Older Voters Turning Away From Trump?

Are Older Voters Turning Away From Trump?

There are different “gaps” in American politics, but one that has consistently shown up in recent presidential elections is . That is, younger voters tend to vote more Democratic and older voters tend to vote more Republican.In 2016, for instance, President Trump performed best among voters 65 years and older. He also won among those between the ages of 45 and 64. So looking ahead to November, you might expect Trump to once again do well with older voters. However, recent public polls — and the president’s — suggest that Trump may be doing worse among older voters against former Vice...

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Geoffrey Skelley
May 18
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Who’s Asking For Sports To Come Back Right Away? Republicans, Mostly.

Who’s Asking For Sports To Come Back Right Away? Republicans, Mostly.

Earlier this week, we presented a tracking sentiments about sports returning from their pandemic-induced hiatus. The was conducted from May 5 to 11 and asked a variety of questions about how sports might start again and what would make fans feel safe at games. We also broke down how those attitudes were influenced by respondents’ overall fandom and previous viewing habits — and even how their answers split along partisan lines — and found some pretty fascinating trends.Respondents were presented with seven sports — baseball, basketball, football, hockey, golf, soccer and NASCAR — and asked...

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Neil Paine
May 14
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If Trump Is Down In The Polls, Why Do So Many Americans Think He’ll Win?

If Trump Is Down In The Polls, Why Do So Many Americans Think He’ll Win?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly . The transcript below has been lightly edited.sarahf (, politics editor): FiveThirtyEight alum Harry Enten found that former Vice President Joe Biden’s average lead of 6 percentage points over President Trump in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944. In other words, Biden has led, on average, by 6 points since the beginning of 2020, but he’s also led by 6 points since the beginning of 2019.Biden also has according to some early polls, yet many Americans despite the many, many polls showing Biden ahead. How do we explain this disconnect?...

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Sarah Frostenson
May 13
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Michael Jordan Faced Better Competition Than LeBron James

Michael Jordan Faced Better Competition Than LeBron James

As we watch Michael Jordan vanquish each of his contemporaries in ESPN’s “” — which wraps up with its final two episodes on Sunday — it’s hard not to imagine the best of today’s game lacing up against them. What if LeBron James had played against these guys?The tone of that question goes one of two ways. If you believe the late 1980s and early 1990s were the golden era of the NBA, you’re asking it derisively. LeBron against the REAL MEN of Jordan’s era? No chance. If you aren’t that nostalgic, you’re asking it gleefully. LeBron against those basketball Neanderthals? It’s about to get ugly...

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Mike Prada
May 14
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Two Special Elections On Tuesday Could Hint At Another Blue Wave In 2020

Two Special Elections On Tuesday Could Hint At Another Blue Wave In 2020

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump in , Democrats are leading polls of the by 2018-level margins, and of the administration’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic threatens to across the board. On Tuesday, we’ll get a taste of whether Democrats’ electoral advantage on paper will hold up in practice, as California and Wisconsin hold special elections for two vacant congressional seats. The main event is in the , a bellwether seat in the north Los Angeles suburbs, where both parties see a chance to add to their ranks in the House. But if Democrats are also competitive in...

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Geoffrey Skelley
May 11
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Millennials Are Leaving Religion And Not Coming Back

Millennials Are Leaving Religion And Not Coming Back

Millennials have earned a reputation for reshaping industries and institutions — , , and . They’ve also had a dramatic impact on American religious life. , according to the Pew Research Center. In fact, millennials (those between the ages of 23 and 38) are now almost as likely to say they have no religion as they are to identify as Christian.For a long time, though, it wasn’t clear whether this youthful defection from religion would be temporary or permanent. It seemed possible that as millennials grew older, at least some would return to a more traditional religious life. But there’s...

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Daniel Cox
Dec 12
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The Terrible Jobs Report Gets Worse The More You Read It

The Terrible Jobs Report Gets Worse The More You Read It

Remember last month, when ? Those were the days. The most recent jobs report is a stunning picture of how the pandemic has reshaped the country’s labor market. Overall, 20.5 million fewer people were employed last month . And the unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 14.7 percent — by far the worst we’ve seen in more than seven decades of economic data.But the speed of the crisis also means that these numbers are already out of date. The jobs report is based on surveys of businesses and households taken during the middle of April, but the economic situation likely worsened as the month went...

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Amelia Thomson
May 8
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Infectious-Disease Experts Think Texas Will See An Increase In Cases

Infectious-Disease Experts Think Texas Will See An Increase In Cases

Graphics byIn a week in which the majority of U.S. states social distancing restrictions, the White House’s faced an uncertain future and the president toured a Honeywell factory without a mask while “” played in the background, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 continued to rise — even above what — as more and more tests have been conducted. The total count of positive cases now stands at more than 1.2 million, according to numbers from .In our effort to make sense of the range of possible outcomes for the outbreak, we’ve continued to follow the results of a of infectious-disease...

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Josh Hermsmeyer
May 7
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Justin Amash Could Cause Some Trouble In November

Justin Amash Could Cause Some Trouble In November

The 2020 presidential election just got its first notable third-party challenger. Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, as a Libertarian. And while we won’t know whether Amash until later this month, here’s what we do know about third-party candidacies more broadly and what that could mean for President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden in the general election.First, it’s unlikely Amash wins much of the vote in November. Take what happened in 2016. Third-party candidates won 6 percent of the vote, which was...

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Geoffrey Skelley
May 4
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The U.S. May Have Trouble Restarting Canada’s Sport

The U.S. May Have Trouble Restarting Canada’s Sport

Like headquartered in the United States, the NHL has been because of the COVID-19 pandemic. But unlike every professional sports league headquartered in the United States, the NHL features a not insignificant number of teams based in Canada. MLS boasts three Canadian teams, MLB and the NBA each include one, and the NFL, NWSL and WNBA have zero. By comparison, seven of the NHL’s 31 teams — almost a quarter of the league — make their homes in the Great White North.As the NHL begins to plan its eventual restart — the league and its players association recently formed the so-called to get that...

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Terrence Doyle
May 4
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Video Games Are Having A Moment — But Sports Games Are In A Rut

Video Games Are Having A Moment — But Sports Games Are In A Rut

With so many people across the country to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, it isn’t surprising that video gaming is on the rise these past few months. , play time was up by 45 percent during the last week of March, while worldwide . Although a lot of that includes the popular new , which since its release, it also includes sports games — the likes of which leagues have increasingly embraced in the absence of real contests. ESPN aired the in April, while baseball players airing on Twitch and YouTube.In other words, there’s probably never been a better opportunity to play sports...

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Neil Paine
May 1
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Do You Buy That … Democrats Could Win The Senate In 2020?

Do You Buy That … Democrats Could Win The Senate In 2020?

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed under

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Nate Silver
May 4
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Switching To A Vote-By-Mail Election Is Tougher Than It Seems

Switching To A Vote-By-Mail Election Is Tougher Than It Seems

Animations byWith the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, to switch to a vote-by-mail system for the general election in November. Elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich looks into why such a switch is more difficult than it seems here in the United States. Nathaniel Rakich is FiveThirtyEight’s elections analyst.Tony Chow is a video producer for FiveThirtyEight.Filed under

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Nathaniel Rakich
Apr 30
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Nearly 20 Percent Of The U.S. Labor Force Has Filed For Unemployment Since Mid-March

Nearly 20 Percent Of The U.S. Labor Force Has Filed For Unemployment Since Mid-March

Now in its seventh week, the U.S. unemployment crisis continues to deepen. According to Thursday’s from the Department of Labor, 3.8 million more Americans filed for unemployment insurance during the week ending April 25. Although that represents the fourth consecutive week of decline in seasonally adjusted initial claims, the number remains historic. (Remember, no single week prior to March 21 had ever seen even 1 million initial claims , the earliest year that data is available from the Federal Reserve.) If we add up all of the initial claims filed since the coronavirus recession began,...

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Neil Paine
Apr 30
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Few States Are Prepared To Switch To Voting By Mail. That Could Make For A Messy Election.

Few States Are Prepared To Switch To Voting By Mail. That Could Make For A Messy Election.

As with most aspects of our daily lives, the coronavirus pandemic has disrupted the administration of elections. Several states have already that were scheduled for this spring, and the few in-person elections that have taken place were . But with an election date of November 3 more or less , how can the general election be conducted safely if the pandemic is still raging in the fall?think the solution is to conduct the election predominantly by mail — but that’s easier said than done. Converting to a vote-by-mail system is arduous and expensive, and most states simply aren’t set up to...

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Nathaniel Rakich
Apr 27
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Sanders Could Lose A Third Of His Delegates, Making For A Messy Convention

Sanders Could Lose A Third Of His Delegates, Making For A Messy Convention

Primary season began back on Feb. 3 in Iowa with a competitive, multicandidate race for the Democratic presidential nomination, and some reasonable chance that the process would end with at the national convention in Milwaukee. However, after a string of primary losses in March and April, Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden is now the presumptive Democratic nominee.But that doesn’t mean that delegate counting is over. There are still 24 delayed and reconfigured contests with a combined 1,555 delegates at stake. Sure, Biden has already amassed 1,293 delegates and is very...

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Josh Putnam
Apr 24
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Chase Utley Slid His Way Into Our Hall Of Pretty Damn Good Players

Chase Utley Slid His Way Into Our Hall Of Pretty Damn Good Players

, we introduced what we’re calling the , a repository for all of those terrific-but-underappreciated contributors who probably won’t get recognized by their sport’s official Hall of Fame. We kicked things off with Kenny Lofton, who was unceremoniously in 2013 despite being one of history’s best center fielders by (an average of career and peak ). Lofton deserved far better — which happens to make him a great prototype for the HoPDGP phenomenon.In other words, the players who belong in our Hall have slim real-world chances in spite of great advanced metrics. To help quantify that, we made a...

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Neil Paine
Apr 23
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